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Valuing an agricultural technology startup using real options

Author

Listed:
  • William W. Wilson
  • Lee Vetsch
  • David W. Bullock

Abstract

There has been substantial growth in investments for startup firms to develop agricultural technology. Although investing in startups can produce significant returns, the risk of failure is high, and the commercial strategies are largely unknown. Traditional valuation methodologies, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) and multiples, are not well suited for startups. Real options provide a methodology to quantify the value of growth opportunities and managerial flexibility, two critical features of startups. This study develops a model that integrates decision trees and a stochastic binomial lattice to quantify the value of growth opportunities and managerial flexibility in a prerevenue AgTech startup. Utilizing a binomial lattice and decision trees allows for the quantification of private and market risk. The result is a valuation that quantifies the upside optionality that other methodologies disregard. [EconLit Citations: O32, O34, Q140, Q16, C6, G11].

Suggested Citation

  • William W. Wilson & Lee Vetsch & David W. Bullock, 2022. "Valuing an agricultural technology startup using real options," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 771-785, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:771-785
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.21744
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David W. Bullock & William W. Wilson & Joseph Neadeau, 2021. "Gene Editing Versus Genetic Modification in the Research and Development of New Crop Traits: An Economic Comparison," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1700-1719, October.
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    5. Shakya, Sumadhur & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce L., 2013. "Valuing New Random Genetically Modified (GM) Traits in Corn," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.
    7. Balázs FazekasBalázs Fazekas, 2016. "Value-Creating Uncertainty – A Real Options Approach in Venture Capital," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(4), pages 151-166.
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