IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v51y2005i8p1206-1218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo P. Santiago

    (Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Caixa Postal 209, Belo Horizonte, MG.30.161-970, Brazil)

  • Pirooz Vakili

    (Manufacturing Engineering Department and Center for Information and Systems Engineering, Boston University, 15 St. Mary's Street, Brookline, Massachusetts 02246)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider whether an increase in uncertainty increases the value of a research and development (R&D) project. We also consider the related question of the impact of increased project uncertainty on the value of management flexibility, defined as the difference in value when the project is managed "actively" versus when it is under "passive" management. These questions have already been formulated in an insightful paper in the literature, where different sources of variability and uncertainty in R&D projects are identified and abandonment and improvement at interim stages are considered as options that provide management flexibility. We follow the same formulation. We derive a set of negative results that are contrary to the results of the above-mentioned paper and a set of positive results that are different from those presented. Our negative results indicate that when the source of variability is development uncertainty or market requirement uncertainty, one cannot make a general statement about the impact of increased uncertainty. In some cases, the value of flexibility (and project value) increases and in others it decreases. On the other hand, if the source of variability is market payoff, we show that increased variability increases either the overall project value or the project option value. If the increased variability of market payoff increases the "passive" value of the project, the overall project value also increases; and if it decreases the "passive" value, the value of flexibility, i.e., the project option value, increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo P. Santiago & Pirooz Vakili, 2005. "On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1206-1218, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:8:p:1206-1218
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0387
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0387?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    2. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    3. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Luqun & Zhou, Jieyu & Zong, Qingqing & Lu, Qian, 2020. "Gender diversity in R&D teams and innovation efficiency: Role of the innovation context," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    2. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap-Keung & Yen, Benjamin P.C., 2016. "Coordinating operational policy with financial hedging for risk-averse firms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB), pages 279-289.
    3. Sanjai Kumar Shukla & Sushil & Manoj Kumar Sharma, 2019. "Managerial Paradox Toward Flexibility: Emergent Views Using Thematic Analysis of Literature," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 20(4), pages 349-370, December.
    4. Ghosh, Suvankar & Troutt, Marvin D. & Thornton, John H. & Felix Offodile, O., 2010. "An empirical method for assessing the research relevance gap," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 942-948, March.
    5. Shi Chen & Ted Klastorin & Michael R. Wagner, 2021. "Designing practical coordinating contracts in decentralized projects," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(2), pages 183-198, March.
    6. repec:tkp:ijsrsy:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:73-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Goldstein, Anna P. & Kearney, Michael, 2020. "Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    8. Marzieh ShahmariChatghieh & Harri Haapasalo & Anyanitha Distanont, 2013. "A Comparison of R&D Supply Chains and Service and Manufacturing Supply Chains," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 2(2), pages 73-91.
    9. Marzieh Shahmari Chatghieh & Harri Haapasalo & Anyanitha Distanont, 2013. "Comparing Manufacturing and Services Sourcing against R&D Sourcing," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.
    10. Jeremy Hutchison-Krupat & Stylianos Kavadias, 2015. "Strategic Resource Allocation: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and the Value of Strategic Buckets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 391-412, February.
    11. Creemers, Stefan, 2018. "Moments and distribution of the net present value of a serial project," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 835-848.
    12. Hanisch, Bastian & Wald, Andreas, 2014. "Effects of complexity on the success of temporary organizations: Relationship quality and transparency as substitutes for formal coordination mechanisms," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 197-213.
    13. Wang, Juite & Yang, Chung-Yu, 2012. "Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 823-831.
    14. Xiaoyang Long & Javad Nasiry & Yaozhong Wu, 2020. "A Behavioral Study on Abandonment Decisions in Multistage Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1999-2016, May.
    15. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    16. Fernandes, Glaucia & Perobelli, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo T., 2016. "A model for valuing new technologies under a pull incentives environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-493.
    17. Hermans, Ben & Leus, Roel & Looy, Bart Van, 2023. "Deciding on scheduling, secrecy, and patenting during the new product development process: The relevance of project planning models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Yenipazarli, Arda, 2019. "Incentives for environmental research and development: Consumer preferences, competitive pressure and emissions taxation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 757-769.
    19. Tony Chen & Ted Klastorin & Michael R. Wagner, 2015. "Incentive Contracts in Serial Stochastic Projects," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 290-301, July.
    20. Kettunen, Janne & Grushka-Cockayne, Yael & Degraeve, Zeger & De Reyck, Bert, 2015. "New product development flexibility in a competitive environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(3), pages 892-904.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samis, Michael & Steen, John, 2020. "Financial evaluation of mining innovation pilot projects and the value of information," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Giovanni Villani & Marta Biancardi, 2022. "Competition and strategic alliance in R&D investments: a real option game approach with multiple experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 63-86, January.
    3. Luke T. Miller, 2010. "PMA license valuation: A Bayesian learning real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, January.
    4. Goldstein, Anna P. & Kearney, Michael, 2020. "Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    5. Sachon, Marc & Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth, 2002. "Managing technology development for safety-critical systems," IESE Research Papers D/465, IESE Business School.
    6. Van den Broeke, Maud M. & Boute, Robert N. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 2018. "Platform flexibility strategies: R&D investment versus production customization tradeoff," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 475-486.
    7. Miller, Luke T., 2010. "PMA license valuation: A Bayesian learning real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, January.
    8. Koussis, Nicos & Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Multi-stage product development with exploration, value-enhancing, preemptive and innovation options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 174-190.
    9. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    10. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, July.
    11. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    12. Nyambane, Gerald G. & Black, J. Roy, 2004. "The Real Options Puzzle For Michigan Tart Cherry Producers," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20011, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Fernandes, Glaucia & Perobelli, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo T., 2016. "A model for valuing new technologies under a pull incentives environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-493.
    14. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
    15. Maarten Ijzerman & Lotte Steuten, 2011. "Early assessment of medical technologies to inform product development and market access," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 331-347, September.
    16. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
    17. Carlos Andres Zapata Quimbayo & Carlos Armando Mej¨ªa Vega, 2019. "Real Options Valuation in Gold Mining Projects under Multinomial Tree Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 204-218, September.
    18. Lukas, Elmar & Mölls, Sascha & Welling, Andreas, 2016. "Venture capital, staged financing and optimal funding policies under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 305-313.
    19. Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December.
    20. Lukas Auer, 2013. "SOA investment decision-making using real options analysis," International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 21-40.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:8:p:1206-1218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.