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On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo P. Santiago

    (Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Caixa Postal 209, Belo Horizonte, MG.30.161-970, Brazil)

  • Pirooz Vakili

    (Manufacturing Engineering Department and Center for Information and Systems Engineering, Boston University, 15 St. Mary's Street, Brookline, Massachusetts 02246)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider whether an increase in uncertainty increases the value of a research and development (R&D) project. We also consider the related question of the impact of increased project uncertainty on the value of management flexibility, defined as the difference in value when the project is managed "actively" versus when it is under "passive" management. These questions have already been formulated in an insightful paper in the literature, where different sources of variability and uncertainty in R&D projects are identified and abandonment and improvement at interim stages are considered as options that provide management flexibility. We follow the same formulation. We derive a set of negative results that are contrary to the results of the above-mentioned paper and a set of positive results that are different from those presented. Our negative results indicate that when the source of variability is development uncertainty or market requirement uncertainty, one cannot make a general statement about the impact of increased uncertainty. In some cases, the value of flexibility (and project value) increases and in others it decreases. On the other hand, if the source of variability is market payoff, we show that increased variability increases either the overall project value or the project option value. If the increased variability of market payoff increases the "passive" value of the project, the overall project value also increases; and if it decreases the "passive" value, the value of flexibility, i.e., the project option value, increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo P. Santiago & Pirooz Vakili, 2005. "On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1206-1218, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:8:p:1206-1218
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    2. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    3. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Luqun & Zhou, Jieyu & Zong, Qingqing & Lu, Qian, 2020. "Gender diversity in R&D teams and innovation efficiency: Role of the innovation context," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    2. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap-Keung & Yen, Benjamin P.C., 2016. "Coordinating operational policy with financial hedging for risk-averse firms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB), pages 279-289.
    3. Sanjai Kumar Shukla & Sushil & Manoj Kumar Sharma, 2019. "Managerial Paradox Toward Flexibility: Emergent Views Using Thematic Analysis of Literature," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 20(4), pages 349-370, December.
    4. Ghosh, Suvankar & Troutt, Marvin D. & Thornton, John H. & Felix Offodile, O., 2010. "An empirical method for assessing the research relevance gap," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 942-948, March.
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    7. Goldstein, Anna P. & Kearney, Michael, 2020. "Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    8. Marzieh ShahmariChatghieh & Harri Haapasalo & Anyanitha Distanont, 2013. "A Comparison of R&D Supply Chains and Service and Manufacturing Supply Chains," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 2(2), pages 73-91.
    9. Marzieh Shahmari Chatghieh & Harri Haapasalo & Anyanitha Distanont, 2013. "Comparing Manufacturing and Services Sourcing against R&D Sourcing," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.
    10. Jeremy Hutchison-Krupat & Stylianos Kavadias, 2015. "Strategic Resource Allocation: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and the Value of Strategic Buckets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 391-412, February.
    11. Creemers, Stefan, 2018. "Moments and distribution of the net present value of a serial project," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 835-848.
    12. Hanisch, Bastian & Wald, Andreas, 2014. "Effects of complexity on the success of temporary organizations: Relationship quality and transparency as substitutes for formal coordination mechanisms," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 197-213.
    13. Wang, Juite & Yang, Chung-Yu, 2012. "Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 823-831.
    14. Xiaoyang Long & Javad Nasiry & Yaozhong Wu, 2020. "A Behavioral Study on Abandonment Decisions in Multistage Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1999-2016, May.
    15. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    16. Fernandes, Glaucia & Perobelli, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo T., 2016. "A model for valuing new technologies under a pull incentives environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-493.
    17. Hermans, Ben & Leus, Roel & Looy, Bart Van, 2023. "Deciding on scheduling, secrecy, and patenting during the new product development process: The relevance of project planning models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Yenipazarli, Arda, 2019. "Incentives for environmental research and development: Consumer preferences, competitive pressure and emissions taxation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 757-769.
    19. Tony Chen & Ted Klastorin & Michael R. Wagner, 2015. "Incentive Contracts in Serial Stochastic Projects," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 290-301, July.
    20. Kettunen, Janne & Grushka-Cockayne, Yael & Degraeve, Zeger & De Reyck, Bert, 2015. "New product development flexibility in a competitive environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(3), pages 892-904.

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