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Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. James Payne & Thomas Zuehlke, 2006. "Duration dependence in real estate investment trusts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 413-423.
  2. Giuseppe Vita & Livio Ferrante, 2021. "Is legislation grease or sand to economic growth? An econometric analysis using data from Italian regions before and after the 2008 crisis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 541-561, June.
  3. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  5. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
  6. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
  7. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
  8. repec:wyi:journl:002127 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M, 2021. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: a simple and flexible framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  10. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
  11. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
  13. Liu, Ming, 2000. "Modeling long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-171, November.
  14. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  15. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
  16. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
  17. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
  18. Philip M. Bodman, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  19. Nuri Yildirim, 2015. "A Survival Analysis of the Contraction Phases of Business Cycles in Industrial Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 557-579, December.
  20. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run," Working Papers 2016-28, CEPII research center.
  21. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  22. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "Financial Markets' Shutdown And Reaccess," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 562-571, January.
  23. Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  24. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
  25. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
  26. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2019. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 1144-1178, October.
  27. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  28. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
  29. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  32. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  33. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
  34. Larry W. Taylor, 2007. "Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 423-441.
  35. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  36. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  37. Thomas C. Melzer, 1997. "To conclude: keep inflation low and, in principle, eliminate it," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
  38. repec:oxf:wpaper:2000-w36.2 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
  40. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
  41. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "Economic and political drivers of the duration of credit booms," NIPE Working Papers 15/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  42. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
  43. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
  44. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  45. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
  46. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
  47. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
  48. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
  49. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Time Series Modeling with Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: MCMC Inference, Software and Applications," Econometrics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. du Plessis, S. A., 2004. "Stretching the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 685-701, July.
  51. Yvette S. Harman & Thomas W. Zuehlke, 2007. "Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 350-362.
  52. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
  53. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re‐Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1969-1994, December.
  54. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  55. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
  56. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Working Papers 0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  57. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: \\"watchful waiting\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23.
  58. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2019. "A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  59. Matteo Pelagatti, 2003. "Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression: Properties, Bayesian Inference, Software and Application," Working Papers 20051101, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Nov 2005.
  60. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
  61. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Booms, Busts, and Normal Times in the Housing Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 25-45, January.
  62. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  63. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
  65. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
  66. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
  67. Yýlmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity – Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
  68. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  69. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Laeven, Luc, 2020. "Growth-and-Risk Trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 14492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  70. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
  71. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.
  72. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  73. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  74. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
  75. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 512-526.
  76. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
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