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Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario

Author

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  • Barrera, Carlos

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

En esta investigación se describe los hechos estilizados de los ciclos sectoriales de los negocios privados en el Perú desde inicios de los 90s. Las reformas estructurales deberían reflejarse en una mayor integración productiva generada por un proceso de formación de complementariedades entre los diferentes sectores bajo condiciones de mercado. La metodología del NBER es utilizada para determinar los puntos de inicio de las fases expansiva y contractiva en el ritmo de crecimiento de los negocios por sectores en el periodo 1994-2007. Se seleccionó el crecimiento promedio del PBI no primario como la variable referencial. Sin embargo, se encuentra que no existe un ciclo agregado común en la economía peruana (asincronía) en la muestra disponible, el que sin embargo podría estar en formación hacia el final de la muestra. Esta conjetura es apoyada por los datos de las duraciones de las fases en los ciclos individuales, pues se suceden de manera recurrente. Se encuentra además que la duración de las fases más recientes es mayor que las más alejadas en la muestra. Ambos resultados significan que las reformas estructurales mejoraron la estructura de relaciones económicas entre los diferentes sectores de la actividad productiva sectorial en el Perú al generar una mayor flexibilidad para enfrentar los diversos choques a la que está expuesta (resiliencia). Finalmente, se propone un criterio para construir un índice de indicadores anticipados cuando no se dispone de un ciclo agregado en formación. Al utilizarlo, se logra anticipar el inicio de una desaceleración en el II semestre del 2008, el cual puede ser el inicio del primer ciclo agregado común de los negocios en el Perú.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2009-013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paliza, Rosendo, 1999. "Impacto de las privatizaciones en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 4, pages 9-37.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1.
    3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-336, May.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 255-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Leading Indicators," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 879-960, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Inventory Adjustments to Demand Shocks under Flexible Specifications," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 149-201, january-j.
    2. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Análisis de duración; Fluctuaciones en los negocios; Indicadores anticipados; Predicción;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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