IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbp/wpaper/2009-013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario

Author

Listed:
  • Barrera, Carlos

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

En esta investigación se describe los hechos estilizados de los ciclos sectoriales de los negocios privados en el Perú desde inicios de los 90s. Las reformas estructurales deberían reflejarse en una mayor integración productiva generada por un proceso de formación de complementariedades entre los diferentes sectores bajo condiciones de mercado. La metodología del NBER es utilizada para determinar los puntos de inicio de las fases expansiva y contractiva en el ritmo de crecimiento de los negocios por sectores en el periodo 1994-2007. Se seleccionó el crecimiento promedio del PBI no primario como la variable referencial. Sin embargo, se encuentra que no existe un ciclo agregado común en la economía peruana (asincronía) en la muestra disponible, el que sin embargo podría estar en formación hacia el final de la muestra. Esta conjetura es apoyada por los datos de las duraciones de las fases en los ciclos individuales, pues se suceden de manera recurrente. Se encuentra además que la duración de las fases más recientes es mayor que las más alejadas en la muestra. Ambos resultados significan que las reformas estructurales mejoraron la estructura de relaciones económicas entre los diferentes sectores de la actividad productiva sectorial en el Perú al generar una mayor flexibilidad para enfrentar los diversos choques a la que está expuesta (resiliencia). Finalmente, se propone un criterio para construir un índice de indicadores anticipados cuando no se dispone de un ciclo agregado en formación. Al utilizarlo, se logra anticipar el inicio de una desaceleración en el II semestre del 2008, el cual puede ser el inicio del primer ciclo agregado común de los negocios en el Perú.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2009-013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2009/Documento-de-Trabajo-13-2009.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paliza, Rosendo, 1999. "Impacto de las privatizaciones en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 4, pages 9-37.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, June.
    3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-336, May.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 255-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, October.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Leading Indicators," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 879-960, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Inventory Adjustments to Demand Shocks under Flexible Specifications," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 149-201, january-j.
    2. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    2. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    3. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    5. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    6. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
    7. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    8. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    9. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    10. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    12. Yvette S. Harman & Thomas W. Zuehlke, 2007. "Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 350-362.
    13. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    14. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    15. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
    17. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
    18. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
    19. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    20. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Análisis de duración; Fluctuaciones en los negocios; Indicadores anticipados; Predicción;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2009-013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcrgvpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.