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Value-at-risk and extreme returns

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Li, Longqing, 2017. "A Comparative Study of GARCH and EVT Model in Modeling Value-at-Risk," MPRA Paper 85645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas de Riesgo, Características y Técnicas de Medición: Una Aplicación del VAR y el ES a la Tasa Interbancaria de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 343, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Ana-Maria Gavril, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk: Heads or Tails," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 35, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  4. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
  5. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
  6. Antonio Díaz & Carlos Esparcia, 2021. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice under time-varying risk aversion," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 1-22.
  7. Odening, Martin & Hinrichs, Jan, 2003. "Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 52(02), pages 1-11.
  8. Saiful Izzuan Hussain & Steven Li, 2018. "The dynamic dependence between stock markets in the greater China economic area: a study based on extreme values and copulas," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 207-233, May.
  9. George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Conditional autoregressive valu at risk by regression quantile: Estimatingmarket risk for major stock markets," Working Papers 0521, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  10. Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba & Mathias Mandla Manguzvane, 2021. "Exchange Rate Risk and International Equity Portfolio Diversification: A South African Investor’s Perspective," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 36-49.
  11. Jian Zhou & Yanmin Gao, 2012. "Tail Dependence in International Real Estate Securities Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 128-151, June.
  12. Miguel T. Delfiner & Matías A. Gutiérrez Girault, 2002. "Aplicación de la teoría de valores extremos al gerenciamiento del riesgo," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 217, Universidad del CEMA.
  13. Pilar Abad & Sonia Benito, 2009. "Accurate Of Var Calculated Using Empirical Models Of The Term Structure," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(06), pages 811-832.
  14. Stefano Cabras & Walter Racugno, 2002. "Measuring Value at Risk with an extremal process," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(1-2), pages 157-174.
  15. Consigli, Giorgio, 2002. "Tail estimation and mean-VaR portfolio selection in markets subject to financial instability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1355-1382, July.
  16. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
    • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
  18. Li, Fuchun & Perez-Saiz, Hector, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk across financial market infrastructures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-11.
  19. Ozaki, Vitor Augusto & Olinda, Ricardo & Faria, Priscila Neves & Campos, Rogerio Costa, 2014. "Estimation of the Agricultural Probability of Loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná Stats," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(1), pages 1-16, March.
  20. Rossignolo, Adrián F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2013. "Market crises and Basel capital requirements: Could Basel III have been different? Evidence from Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1323-1339.
  21. Faias, José Afonso, 2023. "Predicting the equity risk premium using the smooth cross-sectional tail risk: The importance of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  22. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
  23. Salisu, Afees A. & Olaniran, Abeeb & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2022. "Oil tail risk and the tail risk of the US Dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  24. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman, 2003. "High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 337-356, October.
  25. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
  26. Ozaki, Vitor Augusto & Olinda, Ricardo & Faria, Priscila Neves & Campos, Rogério Costa, 2014. "Estimation of the Agricultural Probability of Loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná State," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(1), January.
  27. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
  28. Hong, Yongmiao & Liu, Yanhui & Wang, Shouyang, 2009. "Granger causality in risk and detection of extreme risk spillover between financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 271-287, June.
  29. Herrera, R. & Clements, A.E., 2018. "Point process models for extreme returns: Harnessing implied volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 161-175.
  30. Iglesias, Emma M. & Linton, Oliver, 2009. "Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we094726, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  31. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton & Daniel R. Smith, 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160, January.
  32. repec:wyi:journl:002098 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
  34. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
  35. Giovanni Ferri, 2016. "Regolamentazione bancaria: serve un cambio di approccio," ECONOMIA E DIRITTO DEL TERZIARIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(3), pages 383-408.
  36. Giacomo Bormetti & Maria Elena De Giuli & Danilo Delpini & Claudia Tarantola, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of Value-at-Risk with Product Partition Models," Papers 0809.0241, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
  37. repec:grm:ecoyun:201716 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  39. Saadi, Samir & Rahman, Abdul, 2008. "Evidence of non-stationary bias in scaling by square root of time: Implications for Value-at-Risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, July.
  40. Halkos, George & Tsirivis, Apostolos, 2019. "Using Value-at-Risk for effective energy portfolio risk management," MPRA Paper 91674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
  42. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
  43. Hussein Khraibani & Bilal Nehme & Olivier Strauss, 2018. "Interval Estimation of Value-at-Risk Based on Nonparametric Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-30, December.
  44. Hussain, Saiful Izzuan & Li, Steven, 2018. "The dependence structure between Chinese and other major stock markets using extreme values and copulas," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 421-437.
  45. Fuchun Li & Héctor Pérez Saiz, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures," Staff Working Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
  46. Wang, Xiaoyu & Xie, Dejun & Jiang, Jingjing & Wu, Xiaoxia & He, Jia, 2017. "Value-at-Risk estimation with stochastic interest rate models for option-bond portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-20.
  47. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
  48. de Jesús, Raúl & Ortiz, Edgar & Cabello, Alejandra, 2013. "Long run peso/dollar exchange rates and extreme value behavior: Value at Risk modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 139-152.
  49. Singh, Abhay K. & Allen, David E. & Robert, Powell J., 2013. "Extreme market risk and extreme value theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 310-328.
  50. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-022 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  52. GIOT, Pierre, 2000. "Intraday value-at-risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000045, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  53. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," Bank of England working papers 660, Bank of England.
  54. Horváth, Roman & Šopov, Boril, 2016. "GARCH models, tail indexes and error distributions: An empirical investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
  55. Odening, Martin & Hinrichs, Jan, 2002. "Assessment Of Market Risk In Hog Production Using Value-At-Risk And Extreme Value Theory," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19907, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  56. Cotter, John, 2004. "Modelling extreme financial returns of global equity markets," MPRA Paper 3532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Revisiting the safe haven role of Gold across time and frequencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  58. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2024. "Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1-27.
  59. Codrut Florin Ivascu & Daniela Serban, 2023. "Value at Risk Estimation for Non-Gaussian Distributions," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 15(2), pages 181-190, December.
  60. Anthony J. Seymour & Daniel A. Polakow, 2003. "A Coupling of Extreme-Value Theory and Volatility Updating with Value-at-Risk Estimation in Emerging Markets: A South African Test," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(1-2), pages 3-23, March-Jun.
  61. Jaap Geluk & Liang Peng & Casper G. de Vries, 1999. "Convolutions of Heavy Tailed Random Variables and Applications to Portfolio Diversification and MA(1) Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-088/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  62. Nieto, María Rosa, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  63. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011. "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 443-459.
  64. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
  65. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
  66. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafał, 2010. "Models for heavy-tailed asset returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  67. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
  68. Rossignolo, Adrian F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2012. "Value-at-Risk models and Basel capital charges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 303-319.
  69. Gimeno, Ricardo & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "An automatic procedure for the estimation of the tail index," MPRA Paper 37023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Araújo Santos, Paulo & Fraga Alves, Isabel & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "High quantiles estimation with Quasi-PORT and DPOT: An application to value-at-risk for financial variables," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 487-496.
  71. Manfred Gilli & Evis këllezi, 2006. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 207-228, May.
  72. John Cotter, 2004. "Downside risk for European equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 707-716.
  73. Roland Füss & Zeno Adams & Dieter G Kaiser, 2010. "The predictive power of value-at-risk models in commodity futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 261-285, October.
  74. Flavio Bazzana, 2001. "I modelli interni per la valutazione del rischio di mercato secondo l'approccio del Value at Risk," Alea Tech Reports 011, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  75. Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman, 2017. "Overnight returns of stock indexes: Evidence from ETFs and futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 440-451.
  76. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  77. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 435-457, September.
  78. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices over 150 years: The role of tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  79. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions. III," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 100-130.
  80. Weron, Rafał, 2004. "Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations," Papers 2004,32, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  81. Herrera, Rodrigo & Schipp, Bernhard, 2011. "Extreme value models in a conditional duration intensity framework," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-022, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  82. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2017. "Risk evaluations with robust approximate factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 244-264.
  83. Lucas, André & Straetmans, Stefan & Klaassen, Pieter, 1999. "Tail behavior of credit loss distributions," Serie Research Memoranda 0060, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  84. Muteba Mwamba, John & Mhlanga, Isaah, 2013. "Extreme conditional value at risk: a coherent scenario for risk management," MPRA Paper 64387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  85. Wang, Chuan-Sheng & Zhao, Zhibiao, 2016. "Conditional Value-at-Risk: Semiparametric estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 86-103.
  86. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M�decin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  87. Suparna Biswas & Santanu Dutta, 2015. "Assessing Market Risk of Indian Index Funds," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(3), pages 511-523, June.
  88. Xu, Jing & Zhang, Bo, 2009. "Martingale characterization of G-Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 232-248, January.
  89. Lesedi Mabitsela & Eben Maré & Rodwell Kufakunesu, 2015. "Quantification of VaR: A Note on VaR Valuation in the South African Equity Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, February.
  90. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, Enero-Jun.
  91. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  92. Allen, David E. & Singh, Abhay K. & Powell, Robert J., 2013. "EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 355-369.
  93. Abdul-Aziz Ibn Musah & Jianguo Du & Hira Salah Ud din Khan & Alhassan Alolo Abdul-Rasheed Akeji, 2018. "The Asymptotic Decision Scenarios of an Emerging Stock Exchange Market: Extreme Value Theory and Artificial Neural Network," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
  94. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 961-994, Elsevier.
  95. Hamed Tabasi & Vahidreza Yousefi & Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Foroogh Ghasemi, 2019. "Estimating Conditional Value at Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Extreme Value Theory Using GARCH Models," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, May.
  96. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, March.
  97. Ahmed, Rizwan & Chaudhry, Sajid M. & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Benjasak, Chonlakan, 2022. "Tail risk, systemic risk and spillover risk of crude oil and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  98. Bi, Guang & Giles, David E., 2009. "Modelling the financial risk associated with U.S. movie box office earnings," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2759-2766.
  99. Fabio Bellini & Gianna Figà-Talamanca, 2004. "Detecting And Modeling Tail Dependence," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 269-287.
  100. Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Nguyen, Cuong C., 2012. "Diversification evidence from international equity markets using extreme values and stochastic copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 622-646.
  101. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris & Omoke, Philip C. & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2023. "Gold and tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  102. Riedel, Christoph & Wagner, Niklas, 2015. "Is risk higher during non-trading periods? The risk trade-off for intraday versus overnight market returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 53-64.
  103. Sun, Pengfei & Zhou, Chen, 2014. "Diagnosing the distribution of GARCH innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 287-303.
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