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Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality

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  1. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
  2. Christopher D. Ittner & Jeremy Michels, 2017. "Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1005-1047, September.
  3. Shardul Phadnis & Chris Caplice & Yossi Sheffi & Mahender Singh, 2015. "Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1401-1411, September.
  4. Ernst, Anna & Biß, Klaus H. & Shamon, Hawal & Schumann, Diana & Heinrichs, Heidi U., 2018. "Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 245-257.
  5. Lorenz Graf-Vlachy, 2019. "Like student like manager? Using student subjects in managerial debiasing research," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 347-376, April.
  6. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
  7. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
  8. Bingham, Logan Robert, 2021. "Vittel as a model case in PES discourse: Review and critical perspective," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  9. Lacroix, Denis & Laurent, Louis & de Menthière, Nicolas & Schmitt, Bertrand & Béthinger, Audrey & David, Bernard & Didier, Christophe & Parent du Châtelet, Jacques, 2019. "Multiple visions of the future and major environmental scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 93-102.
  10. Shardul Sharad Phadnis, 2021. "Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
  11. Klos, Christoph & Spieth, Patrick, 2021. "READY, STEADY, DIGITAL?! How foresight activities do (NOT) affect individual technological frames for managerial SENSEMAKING," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  12. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  13. Danni Sun & Fanglei Zhong & Ying Nie & Yulian Ma & Yusong Liu & Yang Liu, 2024. "Synergistic Development Pathways for National Parks and Local Regions: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenario Forecasting and Optimization," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, September.
  14. Christopher Münch & Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2021. "A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
  15. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  16. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2021. "On inquiry in futures and foresight science," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
  17. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
  18. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
  19. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
  20. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
  21. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  22. Zipan Cai & Bo Wang & Cong Cong & Vladimir Cvetkovic, 2020. "Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1380-1396, October.
  23. Elna Schirrmeister & Anne‐Louise Göhring & Philine Warnke, 2020. "Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
  24. von Wirth, Timo & Wissen Hayek, Ulrike & Kunze, Antje & Neuenschwander, Noemi & Stauffacher, Michael & Scholz, Roland W., 2014. "Identifying urban transformation dynamics: Functional use of scenario techniques to integrate knowledge from science and practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 115-130.
  25. Phadnis, Shardul & Caplice, Chris & Singh, Mahender & Sheffi, Yossi, 2014. "Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
  26. Frith, David & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2020. "Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  27. Herbert Dawid & Reinhold Decker & Thomas Hermann & Hermann Jahnke & Wilhelm Klat & Rolf König & Christian Stummer, 2017. "Management science in the era of smart consumer products: challenges and research perspectives," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 25(1), pages 203-230, March.
  28. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
  29. Shardul Phadnis & Nitin Joglekar, 2021. "Configuring Supply Chain Dyads for Regulatory Disruptions: A Behavioral Study of Scenarios," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(4), pages 1014-1033, April.
  30. Filippo Zanin & Eugenio Comuzzi, 2019. "Scenarizzazione e pianificazione strategica nei contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(1 suppl.), pages 95-120.
  31. Philip Meissner & Torsten Wulf, 2016. "Debiasing illusion of control in individual judgment: the role of internal and external advice seeking," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 245-263, March.
  32. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
  33. Moqaddamerad, Sara & Ali, Murad, 2024. "Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  34. Schulhof, Vera & van Vuuren, Detlef & Kirchherr, Julian, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): What Will it Look Like in the Future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  35. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  36. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
  37. Eric Rega Christophe Bayala & Kwabena Owusu Asubonteng & Mirjam Ros-Tonen & Houria Djoudi & Freddie Sayi Siangulube & James Reed & Terry Sunderland, 2023. "Using Scenario Building and Participatory Mapping to Negotiate Conservation-Development Trade-Offs in Northern Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
  38. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 430-439.
  39. Bowman, Gary & Parks, Ryan W., 2024. "Between episodes of strategy: Sociomateriality, sensemaking, and dysfunction in a scenario planning process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
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