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Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts

Author

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  • Christopher D. Ittner

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jeremy Michels

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This study examines the association between a firm’s internal information environment and the accuracy of its externally disclosed management earnings forecasts. Internally, firms use forecasts to plan for uncertain futures. The risk management literature argues that integrating risk-related information into forecasts and plans can improve a firm’s ability to forecast financial outcomes. We investigate whether this internal information manifests itself in the accuracy of external earnings guidance. Using detailed survey data and publicly disclosed management earnings forecasts from a sample of publicly traded U.S. companies, we find that more sophisticated risk-based forecasting and planning processes are associated with smaller earnings forecast errors and narrower forecast widths. These associations hold across a variety of different planning horizons (ranging from annual budgeting to long-term strategic planning), providing empirical support for the theoretical link between internal information quality and the quality of external disclosures.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher D. Ittner & Jeremy Michels, 2017. "Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1005-1047, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:22:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-017-9396-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-017-9396-0
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    3. Jung, Jay Heon & Lim, Sonya S. & Park, Jongwon, 2023. "Is your surname remunerative? Surname favorability and CEO compensation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Ena Pecina & Danijela Miloš Sprčić & Ivana Dvorski Lacković, 2022. "Qualitative Analysis of Enterprise Risk Management Systems in the Largest European Electric Power Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Sehwa Kim & Seil Kim & Anya V. Kleymenova & Rongchen Li, 2023. "Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Standard and Banks' Information Production," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Posch, Arthur, 2020. "Integrating risk into control system design: The complementarity between risk-focused results controls and risk-focused information sharing," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Ivana Dvorski Lacković & Nataša Kurnoga & Danijela Miloš Sprčić, 2022. "Three-factor model of Enterprise Risk Management implementation: exploratory study of non-financial companies," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 101-122, June.
    8. Osswald, Benjamin, 2018. "Corporate tax planning and firms' information environment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 236, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    9. Qiang Cheng & Young Jun Cho & Holly Yang, 2018. "Financial reporting changes and the internal information environment: Evidence from SFAS 142," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 347-383, March.
    10. He, Jing & Lee, Dongyoung, 2023. "Say more to return less? Disclosure subsequent to successful technological innovation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 403-426.
    11. Dane M. Christensen & Hengda Jin & Suhas A. Sridharan & Laura A. Wellman, 2022. "Hedging on the Hill: Does Political Hedging Reduce Firm Risk?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4356-4379, June.
    12. Roychowdhury, Sugata & Shroff, Nemit & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2019. "The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).

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