IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v47y2020i8p1380-1396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China

Author

Listed:
  • Zipan Cai

    (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden)

  • Bo Wang

    (26469Sun Yat-Sen University, China)

  • Cong Cong

    (University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign, IL, USA)

  • Vladimir Cvetkovic

Abstract

Although urban scenario planning is widely applied for exploring various directions of urban development, it often has high requirements on the medium of quantitative information analysis and transformation. Thus, this study establishes a method of combining scenario planning with a spatial dynamic planning support system to predict urban growth. Specifically, a scenario-based spatial dynamic modelling method is integrated with the information module of planning policy for better decision support. The integrated modelling method is applied for an actual urban land use planning case of Nanjing, an evolving city in China. The spatial forms of future urban land use are simulated under four different pre-set policy scenarios. The differences in simulated results under multi-criteria restrictions reveal the effectiveness and practical value of the integration approach. The findings of this study provide policymakers with a process-based approach to test and evaluate ‘what-if’ consequences and help stakeholders reach consensus.

Suggested Citation

  • Zipan Cai & Bo Wang & Cong Cong & Vladimir Cvetkovic, 2020. "Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1380-1396, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:47:y:2020:i:8:p:1380-1396
    DOI: 10.1177/2399808320934818
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2399808320934818
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2399808320934818?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnab Chakraborty & Nikhil Kaza & Gerrit-Jan Knaap & Brian Deal, 2011. "Robust Plans and Contingent Plans," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(3), pages 251-266.
    2. Chao Xu & Dagmar Haase & Meirong Su & Yutao Wang & Stephan Pauleit, 2020. "Assessment of landscape changes under different urban dynamics based on a multiple-scenario modeling approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1361-1379, October.
    3. Kosow, Hannah & Gaßner, Robert, 2008. "Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 39, number 39, October.
    4. Guangzhao Chen & Xia Li & Xiaoping Liu & Yimin Chen & Xun Liang & Jiye Leng & Xiaocong Xu & Weilin Liao & Yue’an Qiu & Qianlian Wu & Kangning Huang, 2020. "Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Sajida Perveen & Md. Kamruzzaman & Tan Yigitcanlar, 2017. "Developing Policy Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Growth Management: A Delphi Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-27, October.
    6. Becky P. Y. Loo & Bo Wang, 2018. "Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing, China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 365-384, March.
    7. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2013. "Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 801-814.
    8. Deal, Brian & Schunk, Daniel, 2004. "Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-95, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haozhi Pan & Stan Geertman & Brian Deal, 2020. "What does urban informatics add to planning support technology?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1317-1325, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haozhi Pan & Stan Geertman & Brian Deal, 2020. "What does urban informatics add to planning support technology?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1317-1325, October.
    2. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Zhang, Pengyan & Yang, Dan & Qin, Mingzhou & Jing, Wenlong, 2020. "Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future Urban Land intensive use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Han Li & Wei Song, 2021. "Cropland Abandonment and Influencing Factors in Chongqing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Juan Carlos Alías & José Antonio Mejías & Natividad Chaves, 2022. "Effect of Cropland Abandonment on Soil Carbon Stock in an Agroforestry System in Southwestern Spain," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Ana Luiza Fontenelle & Erik Nilsson & Ieda Geriberto Hidalgo & Cintia B. Uvo & Drielli Peyerl, 2022. "Temporal Understanding of the Water–Energy Nexus: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Xin Zhang & Jinghu Pan, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Merkebe Getachew Demissie & Lina Kattan, 2022. "Understanding the temporal and spatial interactions between transit ridership and urban land-use patterns: an exploratory study," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 385-417, June.
    10. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Chen, Tiantian & Fu, Xiaowen & Hensher, David A. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Sze, N.N., 2022. "Air travel choice, online meeting and passenger heterogeneity – An international study on travellers’ preference during a pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 439-453.
    12. Yusong Xie & Katsue Fukamachi & Wen Wang & Shozo Shibata, 2023. "Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Trung Tran & Thao-Phuong-Thi Trinh & Cuong-Minh Le & Linh-Khanh Hoang & Hiep-Hung Pham, 2020. "Research as a Base for Sustainable Development of Universities: Using the Delphi Method to Explore Factors Affecting International Publishing among Vietnamese Academic Staff," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, April.
    14. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    15. Guillaume POUYANNE & Laëtitia GUILHOT & André MEUNIÉ, 2018. "L'usage de l'automobile et la structure spatiale en Chine : le modèle de ville compacte en question," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 48, pages 105-120.
    16. Shi, Kunbo & De Vos, Jonas & Cheng, Long & Yang, Yongchun & Witlox, Frank, 2021. "The influence of the built environment on online purchases of intangible services: Examining the mediating role of online purchase attitudes," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-126.
    17. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    18. von Wirth, Timo & Wissen Hayek, Ulrike & Kunze, Antje & Neuenschwander, Noemi & Stauffacher, Michael & Scholz, Roland W., 2014. "Identifying urban transformation dynamics: Functional use of scenario techniques to integrate knowledge from science and practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 115-130.
    19. Herbert Dawid & Reinhold Decker & Thomas Hermann & Hermann Jahnke & Wilhelm Klat & Rolf König & Christian Stummer, 2017. "Management science in the era of smart consumer products: challenges and research perspectives," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 25(1), pages 203-230, March.
    20. Seng Boon Lim & Jalaluddin Abdul Malek & Md Farabi Yussoff Md Yussoff & Tan Yigitcanlar, 2021. "Understanding and Acceptance of Smart City Policies: Practitioners’ Perspectives on the Malaysian Smart City Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-31, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:47:y:2020:i:8:p:1380-1396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.