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Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2021. "Overconfidence and conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1483-1499, October.
  2. Katharina Dowling & Daniel Guhl & Daniel Klapper & Martin Spann & Lucas Stich & Narine Yegoryan, 2020. "Behavioral biases in marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 449-477, May.
  3. Kai Barron & Christina Gravert, 2022. "Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 35-68, January.
  4. Bruhin, Adrian & Santos-Pinto, Luís & Staubli, David, 2018. "How do beliefs about skill affect risky decisions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 350-371.
  5. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," NBER Working Papers 23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ingmar Geiger, 2014. "Media Effects on the Formation of Negotiator Satisfaction: The Example of Face-to-Face and Text Based Electronically Mediated Negotiations," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 735-763, July.
  7. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2007. "Why inexperienced investors do not learn: They do not know their past portfolio performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 203-216, December.
  8. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
  9. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Lechner, Christian, 2013. "Cognitive biases, organization, and entrepreneurial firm survival," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-294.
  10. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  11. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, September.
  12. Alice Soldà & Changxia Ke & Lionel Page & William von Hippel, 2020. "Strategically delusional," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 604-631, September.
  13. Don A. Moore, 2007. "When good = better than average," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 277-291, October.
  14. Raphael Guber & Martin G. Kocher & Joachim Winter, 2021. "Does having insurance change individuals' self‐confidence?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 429-442, June.
  15. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
  16. Henry Eyring & V. G. Narayanan, 2018. "Performance Effects of Setting a High Reference Point for Peer‐Performance Comparison," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 581-615, May.
  17. Peter Schwardmann & Joël van der Weele, 2016. "Deception and Self-Deception," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-012/I, Tinbergen Institute.
  18. Alice Soldà & Changxia Ke & Lionel Page & William von Hippel, 2019. "Strategically delusional," Working Papers 1908, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  19. Windschitl, Paul D. & Scherer, Aaron M. & Smith, Andrew R. & Rose, Jason P., 2013. "Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 73-86.
  20. Stephanie Briel & Aderonke Osikominu & Gregor Pfeifer & Mirjam Reutter & Sascha Satlukal, 2022. "Gender differences in wage expectations: the role of biased beliefs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 187-212, January.
  21. Biao Luo & Chengyuan Wang & Tieshan Li, 2018. "Inequity-averse agents’ deserved concerns under the linear contract: a social network setting," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 268(1), pages 129-148, September.
  22. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
  23. Jack B. Soll & Asa B. Palley & Christina A. Rader, 2022. "The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2949-2969, April.
  24. Firth, Chris & Stewart, Neil & Antoniou, Constantinos & Leake, David, 2023. "The effects of personality and IQ on portfolio outcomes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  25. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:29-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2008. "Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1815-1824, October.
  27. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
  28. Chen, Clara Xiaoling & Rennekamp, Kristina M. & Zhou, Flora H., 2015. "The effects of forecast type and performance-based incentives on the quality of management forecasts," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 8-18.
  29. Ferretti, Valentina & Guney, Sule & Montibeller, Gilberto & Winterfeldt, Detlof von, 2016. "Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  30. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2011. "True overconfidence: The inability of rational information processing to account for apparent overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 262-271.
  31. Utz Weitzel & Diemo Urbig & Sameeksha Desai & Mark Sanders & Zoltán J. Ács, 2015. "The good, the bad, and the talented: Entrepreneurial talent and selfish behavior," Chapters, in: Global Entrepreneurship, Institutions and Incentives, chapter 2, pages 24-41, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  32. Lia Q. Flores & Miguel A. Fonseca, 2021. "Do in-group biases lead to overconfidence in performance? Experimental evidence," Discussion Papers 2103, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
  33. Meeja Im & JaeEun Oh, 2016. "Effect of emotion regulation as a de-biasing mechanism on overconfidence in investment behavior," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 209-225, September.
  34. Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Impact of CEO Overconfidence on Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from S&P BSE 200," Vision, , vol. 27(1), pages 63-78, February.
  35. Barron, Kai & Gravert, Christina, 2018. "Beliefs and actions: How a shift in confidence affects choices," MPRA Paper 84743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Michal Krawczyk, 2010. "Incentives and Timing in Relative Performance Judgments. A Field Experiment," Framed Field Experiments 00692, The Field Experiments Website.
  37. Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Chung, Chune Young & Liu, Chang, 2018. "Self-attribution of overconfident CEOs and asymmetric investment-cash flow sensitivity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-14.
  38. Victor Stango & Jonathan Zinman, 2019. "We are all Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics," NBER Working Papers 25540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:277-291 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  41. Rabeea Sadaf & Aqeel Younis, 2017. "Investor Psychology And Decision Making; Based On Overconfidence And Self Attribution Bias: Evidence From Islamabad Stock Exchange (Ise)," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 497-505, July.
  42. Uri Gneezy & Moshe Hoffman & Mark A Lane & John A List & Jeffrey A Livingston & Michael J Seiler, 2023. "Can wishful thinking explain evidence for overconfidence? An experiment on belief updating," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 35-54.
  43. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.
  44. See, Kelly E. & Morrison, Elizabeth W. & Rothman, Naomi B. & Soll, Jack B., 2011. "The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 272-285.
  45. Krawczyk, Michał, 2012. "Incentives and timing in relative performance judgments: A field experiment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1240-1246.
  46. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  47. Piehlmaier, Dominik M. & Stagno, Emanuela & Nagy, Agnes, 2023. "Overconfidence at the time of COVID-19:Does it lead to laxer attitudes?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
  48. Hsee, Christopher K. & Yang, Yang & Li, Xilin, 2019. "Relevance insensitivity: A new look at some old biases," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 13-26.
  49. Thoma, Carmen, 2013. "Is Underconfidence Favored over Overconfidence? An Experiment on the Perception of a Biased Self-Assessment," Discussion Papers in Economics 17460, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  50. Kennedy, Jessica A. & Anderson, Cameron & Moore, Don A., 2011. "Social Reactions to Overconfidence: Do the Costs of Overconfidence Outweigh the Benefits?," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt2p7835vm, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  51. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "The Quest for Parsimony in Behavioral Economics: New Methods and Evidence on Three Fronts," NBER Working Papers 23057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Zain UI Abideen & Zeeshan Ahmed & Huan Qiu & Yiwei Zhao, 2023. "Do Behavioral Biases Affect Investors’ Investment Decision Making? Evidence from the Pakistani Equity Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-32, June.
  53. Carmen Thoma, 2016. "Under- versus overconfidence: an experiment on how others perceive a biased self-assessment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 218-239, March.
  54. András Molnár & Christophe Heintz, 2016. "Beliefs About People’s Prosociality Eliciting predictions in dictator games," CEU Working Papers 2016_1, Department of Economics, Central European University.
  55. Kennedy, Jessica A. & Anderson, Cameron & Moore, Don A., 2013. "When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 266-279.
  56. Olsson, Henrik, 2014. "Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1766-1770.
  57. Oren Bar-Gill & Christoph Engel, 2020. "Property is Dummy Proof: An Experiment," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2020_02, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  58. Shashank Kathpal & Asif Akhtar & Asma Zaheer & Mohd Naved Khan, 2021. "Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 305-316, December.
  59. De Paola, Maria & Gioia, Francesca & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2014. "Overconfidence, omens and gender heterogeneity: Results from a field experiment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 237-252.
  60. Leitner, Stephan & Rausch, Alexandra & Behrens, Doris A., 2017. "Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 279-294.
  61. Gino, Francesca & Sharek, Zachariah & Moore, Don A., 2011. "Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 104-114, March.
  62. Miyeon Jung & Daegon Cho & Euncheol Shin, 2021. "Repairing a Cracked Mirror: The Heterogeneous Effect of Personalized Digital Nudges Driven by Misperception," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(8), pages 2586-2607, August.
  63. Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2015. "Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
  64. Haeussler, Carolin & Vieth, Sabrina, 2022. "A question worth a million: The expert, the crowd, or myself? An investigation of problem solving," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
  65. Sheen S. Levine & Michael J. Prietula & Ann Majchrzak, 2022. "Advice in Crisis: Principles of Organizational and Entrepreneurial Resilience," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 11(4), pages 145-168, December.
  66. Kai Duttle, 2016. "Cognitive Skills And Confidence: Interrelations With Overestimation, Overplacement And Overprecision," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(S1), pages 42-55, December.
  67. Shu Li & Jin‐Zhen Li & Yi‐Wen Chen & Xin‐Wen Bai & Xiao‐Peng Ren & Rui Zheng & Li‐Lin Rao & Zuo‐Jun Wang & Huan Liu, 2010. "Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low‐Probability/High‐Consequence Events?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 699-707, April.
  68. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
  69. Czerwonka Monika, 2017. "Anchoring and Overconfidence: The Influence of Culture and Cognitive Abilities," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(3), pages 48-66, September.
  70. Flores, Lia Q. & Fonseca, Miguel A., 2024. "Do in-group biases lead to overconfidence in performance? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  71. Yang, Daecheon & Kim, Hyuntae, 2020. "Managerial overconfidence and manipulation of operating cash flow: Evidence from Korea✰," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  72. Julia P. Prims & Don A. Moore, 2017. "Overconfidence over the lifespan," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(1), pages 29-41, January.
  73. Anderson, Cameron & Brion, Sebastien, 2010. "Overconfidence and the Attainment of Status in Groups," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt5zz0q2r0, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
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