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Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration

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  • Gino, Francesca
  • Sharek, Zachariah
  • Moore, Don A.

Abstract

Prior research has claimed that people exaggerate probabilities of success by overestimating personal control in situations that are heavily or completely chance-determined. We examine whether such overestimation of control persists in situations where people do have control. Our results suggest a simple model that accounts for prior findings on illusory control as well as for situations where actual control is high: People make imperfect estimates of their level of control. By focusing on situations marked by low control, prior research has created the illusion that people generally overestimate their level of control. Across three studies, we show that when they have a great deal of control, people under-estimate it. Implications for research on perceived control and co-variation assessment are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gino, Francesca & Sharek, Zachariah & Moore, Don A., 2011. "Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 104-114, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:114:y:2011:i:2:p:104-114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Don A. Moore & John M. Oesch & Charlene Zietsma, 2007. "What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 440-454, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordi Grau-Moya & Pedro A Ortega & Daniel A Braun, 2016. "Decision-Making under Ambiguity Is Modulated by Visual Framing, but Not by Motor vs. Non-Motor Context. Experiments and an Information-Theoretic Ambiguity Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Antonio Filippin & Paolo Crosetto, 2016. "Click‘n’Roll: No Evidence of Illusion of Control," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 281-295, September.
    3. Czupryna, Marcin & Kubińska, Elżbieta & Markiewicz, Łukasz & Tyszka, Tadeusz, 2021. "On the modified measure of illusion of control," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Timofei Nestik, 2018. "The Psychological Aspects of Corporate Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 78-90.
    6. Hsee, Christopher K. & Yang, Yang & Li, Xilin, 2019. "Relevance insensitivity: A new look at some old biases," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 13-26.

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