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Deception and Self-Deception

Author

Listed:
  • Schwardmann, Peter

    (University of Munich)

  • van der Weele, Joel

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Why are people so often overconfident? We conduct an experiment to test the hypothesis that people become overconfident to more effectively persuade or deceive others. After performing a cognitively challenging task, half of our subjects are informed that they can earn money by convincing others of their superior performance. The privately elicited beliefs of informed subjects are significantly more confident than the beliefs of subjects in the control condition. By generating exogenous variation in confidence with a noisy performance signal, we are also able to show that higher confidence indeed makes subjects more persuasive in the subsequent face-to-face interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwardmann, Peter & van der Weele, Joel, 2017. "Deception and Self-Deception," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 25, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:25
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; self-deception; motivated cognition; persuasion; deception;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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