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Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Citations

Blog mentions

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  1. Nobel for Sargent and Sims
    by Alex Tabarrok in Marginal Revolution on 2011-10-10 16:48:26

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. M. Osman Suliman & Kevin McCann, 1991. "Inflation: Some Empirical Evidence," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 35(2), pages 49-59, October.
  2. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2005. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 1, pages 001-027, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  4. Douglas G. Waldo, 1980. "Sticky nominal wages and the optimal employment rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 155, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. José Gutierrez-Camara & Roland Vaubel, 1981. "Reducing the cost of reducing inflation through gradualism, preannouncement or indexation? The international evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(2), pages 244-261, June.
  6. Pedro Garcia Duarte & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2011. "Privileging Micro over Macro? A History of Conflicting Positions," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2011_01, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  7. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, February.
  8. James Payne, 1995. "Expectations-augmented Phillips curve: further evidence from state economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 248-254.
  9. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Charles van Marrewijk, 2005. "Basic Exchange Rate Theories," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-024/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1984. "Macroeconomic analyses and microeconomic analyses of labor supply," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-156, January.
  12. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Ramser, Hans Jürgen, 1976. "Rationale Erwartungen und Wirtschaftspolitik," Discussion Papers, Series I 84, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
  14. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
  15. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  17. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
  18. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
  19. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
  20. Roque B. Fernandez, 1979. "The Short-Run Output-Inflation Tradeoff in Argentina and Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America, pages 133-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. J. W. Nevile, 1983. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Eighties," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(1), pages 1-15, March.
  22. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2011. "Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Zijp, R. van & Visser, H., 1992. "Mathematical formalization and the analysis of Cantillon effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  24. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  25. Been-Lon Chen, 1995. "Self-fulfilling expectations, history, and big push: A search equilibrium model of unemployment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 245-271, October.
  26. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
  27. Phelps Edmund S., 2008. "Commentary: Revolutionary Times, Then and Now," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-12, December.
  28. Geweke, John F. & Horowitz, Joel L. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View," IZA Discussion Papers 2458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  29. Dale W. Henderson & Douglas G. Waldo, 1981. "Reserve requirements on Eurocurrency deposits: implications for the stabilization of real outputs," International Finance Discussion Papers 183, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  31. Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "New foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model," International Finance Discussion Papers 178, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Thomas Sargent, 2016. "A Framework for the Analysis of Self-Confirming Policies," Working Papers 573, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  33. Robert L. Hetzel, 1986. "A critique of theories of money stock determination," Working Paper 86-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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  35. Robert L. Hetzel, 1988. "The monetary responsibilities of a central bank," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(Sep), pages 19-31.
  36. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "Why Is Risk Aversion Essentially Important for Endogenous Economic Growth?," MPRA Paper 101011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Fiscal Policies, Inflation, and Capital Formation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 61-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Fluctuations in Equilibrium Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 269-275, May.
  39. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1996. "Non-Traded, Traded and Aggregate Inflation In Ireland (Part 2)," Research Technical Papers 3B/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
  40. Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Markus J. Granziol & Anna Holzgang, 1988. "The Contribution of Inflation to the Level and the Variability of Nominal Interest Rates : Some Multi-Country Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(IV), pages 559-573, December.
  42. Hwang, Mann-Fen Susan, 1983. "Testing the natural rate hypothesis under the assumption of rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1983010108000017450, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  43. Leijonhufvud, Axel, 1983. "What would Keynes have thought of rational expectations?," Discussion Papers, Series I 177, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
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  46. Suleman Moosa, 1982. "Money, Inflation, and the Monetarist Explanation: Evidence from the Postwar U.S. Experience," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 101-119, Apr-Jun.
  47. Wilbur John Coleman, 1988. "Money, interest, and capital in a cash-in-advance economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Post-Print hal-03634370, HAL.
  49. Duo Qin, 2010. "Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 661, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  50. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
  51. John S.L. McCombie & Ioana Negru, 2014. "On economic paradigms, rhetoric and the micro-foundations of macroeconomics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 53-66, April.
  52. Gerard A. Pfann, 2001. "Downsizing," Working Papers 0110, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  53. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  54. M. M. Islam Chowdhury & Apostolos Serletis, 2024. "The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 955-983, November.
  55. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2019. "Trends and fads in macroeconomic dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, December.
  56. John Hill & Scott Smith, 1985. "The political timing of errors in inflation forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 215-220, January.
  57. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1992. "Inflation As Restructuring. A Theoretical and Empirical Account of the U.S. Experience," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157989.
  58. João Valle e Azevedo & João Ritto & Pedro Teles, 2022. "The Neutrality Of Nominal Rates: How Long Is The Long Run?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1745-1777, November.
  59. Lemgruber, Antonio Carlos Braga, 1980. "Expectaivas racionais e o dilema produto real/inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 34(4), October.
  60. Bichler, Shimshon & Nitzan, Jonathan, 2013. "Can Capitalists Afford Recovery? Economic Policy When Capital is Power," Working Papers on Capital as Power 2013/01, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism.
  61. Ece Oral, 2013. "Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey," IFC Working Papers 10, Bank for International Settlements.
  62. Canzoneri, Matthew B., 1983. "Rational destabilizing speculation and exchange intervention policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 75-90.
  63. Christopher A. Sims, 2012. "Statistical Modeling of Monetary Policy and Its Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1187-1205, June.
  64. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "A Mechanism of Recession that Accompanies Persistent Pareto Inefficiency," MPRA Paper 98468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Barro, Robert J., 1981. "Intertemporal substitution and the business cycle," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 237-268, January.
  66. Chen, Tao & Gentle, Paul F., 2011. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off and the Significance of the Interest Rate: Some Evidence from United States Data from 1939 through 2007 - Il trade-off tra disoccupazione e inflazione e il ruolo d," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 153-171.
  67. Michael D. Bordo & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2023. "Federal Reserve Structure and the Production of Monetary Policy Ideas," Working Papers 23-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  68. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
  70. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
  72. Jorgen-Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 326(1), pages 295-316, July.
  73. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Macroeconomics after a decade of rational expectations : some critical issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 68(Nov), pages 3-12.
  74. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2020. "A note on observational equivalence of micro assumptions on macro level," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-15.
  75. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  76. Grant Spencer & Ozer Karagedikli, 2006. "Modelling for monetary policy: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-8., June.
  77. Matthew B. Canzoneri, 1980. "Wealth effects in the new neoclassical models," International Finance Discussion Papers 158, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  78. Sami Alpanda & Adam Honig, 2009. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1365-1389, October.
  79. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 673-700, August.
  80. Charles W. Calomiris, 1992. "Greenback Resumption and Silver Risk: The Economics and Politics of Monetary Regime Change in the United States, 1862-1900," NBER Working Papers 4166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
  82. Jerry R. Green, 1977. "Notes on the Public Debt and Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 0188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Dale Henderson, 1984. "Exchange Market Intervention Operations: Their Role in Financial Policy and Their Effects," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 359-406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. Nitzan, Jonathan & Bichler, Shimshon, 2014. "Can Capitalists Afford Recovery? Three Views on Economic Policy in Times of Crisis," Review of Capital as Power, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism, vol. 1(1), pages 110-155.
  85. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2008. "The natural rate hypothesis and real determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-054, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  86. Lin, Yo-Long, 2017. "Is the price path learnable under a fixed exchange rate regime?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 355-366.
  87. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
  88. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03634370, HAL.
  89. Suresh P. Sethi & Sushil Gupta & Vipin K. Agrawal & Vijay K. Agrawal, 2022. "Nobel laureates’ contributions to and impacts on operations management," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(12), pages 4283-4303, December.
  90. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Price Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  91. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Inflation and Unemployment," EconStor Preprints 157850, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  92. Contador, Cláudio R., 1977. "Crescimento econômico e o combate à inflação," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 31(1), January.
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  94. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  95. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September.
  96. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409.
  97. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
  98. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Nunes, Ricardo, 2012. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 135-149.
  99. Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 295-300.
  100. Beat Hotz, 1982. "Konservative Wirtschaftspolitik aus neokeynes'scher Sicht," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 8(3), pages 579-606.
  101. Boris Salazar & Daniel Otero, 2015. "La revolución de los nuevos clásicos: redes, influencia y metodología," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(32), pages 39-69, January-J.
  102. Zijp, R. van, 1991. "The rise of new classical economics," Serie Research Memoranda 0077, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  103. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2007. "La Curva De Phillips Y La Crítica De Friedman," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2007-12, December.
  104. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  105. Agustín Arias, 2016. "Sentiment Shocks as Drivers of Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 782, Central Bank of Chile.
  106. Chibane, Messaoud & Kuhanathan, Ano, 2023. "Is the fed failing to re-anchor expectations? An analysis of jumps in inflation swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
  107. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  108. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983. "The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 545-566.
  109. Kim, Jinbang & De Marchi, Neil & Morgan, Mary S., 1995. "Empirical model particularities and belief in the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 81-102, May.
  110. Lemgruber, Antonio Carlos Braga, 1978. "Uma adaptação do approach monetário do balanço de pagamentos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 32(2), April.
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