IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/inecre/v54y2019i1d10.1007_s41775-019-00075-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends and fads in macroeconomic dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

This paper tries to distinguish between those features of macroeconomic dynamics which will stand the test of time and which will not. It reviews the rational expectations and the representative agent models. It concludes that more attention should be paid to nonlinear dynamics and uncertainty than has hitherto been paid by macroeconomists. This lecture presents some thoughts and observations resulting from having worked for over a quarter of a century in the general area of macroeconomic dynamics. The stimulus for thinking about these issues was occasioned by the writing of my book Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, recently published by MIT Press. This book attempts to provide an overview of the methods employed in the analysis of macrodynamic systems. In doing this one has to sort out what is important, that is what has a permanent effect on how we conduct macrodynamics, and what is purely transitory. This lecture provides a fortuitous occasion to present these views. My remarks will be structured as follows. After reviewing the early background to modern macrodynamics, I will then turn to some of the more recent developments, including the rational expectations and representative agent models. I will then comment on some of the current practices of the profession, including what I consider to be some fads, and conclude with some observations about the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2019. "Trends and fads in macroeconomic dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inecre:v:54:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s41775-019-00075-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s41775-019-00075-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41775-019-00075-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41775-019-00075-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Turnovsky,Stephen J., 1977. "Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521291873, October.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    4. Marc Nerlove, 1958. "Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 227-240.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    6. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
    7. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. L. F. G. De Cazaux, 1965. "On The Budget," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 264-265.
    11. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    13. J. v. Neumann, 1945. "A Model of General Economic Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9.
    14. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    15. Arthur Lewbel, 1989. "Exact Aggregation and a Representative Consumer," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 621-633.
    16. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    17. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    18. David J. Ott & Attiat F. Ott, 1965. "Budget Balance And Equilibrium Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 71-77, March.
    19. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    20. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    21. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    22. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1978. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Growth in a Monetary Economy: A Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, February.
    23. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Uday Bhanu Sinha & Abhijit Banerji & Shreekant Gupta & J. V. Meenakshi, 2019. "Editorial note," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 1-6, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    2. repec:bap:eebook:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 01 edited by Dr. Yisheng Huang, May.
    4. repec:bap:ees2th:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 02 edited by Yisheng Huang, May.
    6. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    8. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    9. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 1999. "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out:: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-24, November.
    10. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2000. "Was there endogenous growth in Chile (1960 - 1998)? A test of the AK-model," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 7, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Roger E. A. Farmer & Amartya Lahiri, 2005. "A Two-Country Model of Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 68-88, January.
    12. Roger E. A. Farmer & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Economic Growth in an Interdependent World Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 969-990, October.
    13. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    14. Diana Dimitrova, 2018. "The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 98-152.
    15. Zijp, R. van & Visser, H., 1992. "Mathematical formalization and the analysis of Cantillon effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Ruttan, Vernon W., 1998. "Growth Economics And Development Economics: What Should Development Economists Learn (If Anything) From The New Growth Theory?," Bulletins 12972, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
    17. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
    18. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    19. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    21. Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2004. "Endogenous Growth in Open Economies - A Survey of Major Results," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04020, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    22. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:inecre:v:54:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s41775-019-00075-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.