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The Neutrality Of Nominal Rates: How Long Is The Long Run?

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  • João Valle e Azevedo
  • João Ritto
  • Pedro Teles

Abstract

We revisit the empirical relationship between policy interest rates and inflation aimed at understanding the reasons for persistently low inflation in Japan and the euro area and why monetary policy has been unable to raise it. We document the long‐run positive relationship between nominal rates and inflation across countries and across time. We also find that a permanent rise in nominal rates leads to an increase in inflation, also in the short run. These findings suggest that the low inflation outcomes are a result of policy rates being kept too low for too long.

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  • João Valle e Azevedo & João Ritto & Pedro Teles, 2022. "The Neutrality Of Nominal Rates: How Long Is The Long Run?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1745-1777, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:63:y:2022:i:4:p:1745-1777
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12584
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    2. Javier Garcia Cicco & Patricio Goldstein & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "Permanent and Transitory Monetary Shocks around the World," Working Papers 275, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Marieh Azizirad, 2022. "Fisher vs Keynes: Does an Interest Rate Hike Cause Inflation to Increase or Decrease?," Discussion Papers dp22-08, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    4. Carvalho, Alexandre & Valle e Azevedo, João & Pires Ribeiro, Pedro, 2024. "Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Kang, Kyu Ho & Do, Kyeongtak, 2024. "Korea’s neutral interest rate: Estimates, determinants, and monetary policy stance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. BOUAKEZ, Hafedh & KANO, Takashi, 2024. "Deciphering the Neo-Fisherian Effect," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-140, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

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