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Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy

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  • Barone, Guglielmo
  • Kreuter, Helena

Abstract

This paper empirically studies the role of trade globalization in shifting the electoral base towards populism. We proxy trade shock with swiftly rising import competition from China and compare the voting pattern at the parliamentary national elections from 1992 to 2013 in about 8,000 Italian municipalities differently exposed to the trade shock. We instrument import competition with Chinese export flows to other high-income countries and estimate the model in first differences. Our results indicate that trade globalization increases support for populist parties, besides fostering a tendency to cast invalid votes or even abstain from voting. To rationalize these findings, we offer evidence that import competition worsens labor market conditions - higher unemployment, lower income and durable consumption - and increases inequality. Finally, we point out that public expenditure plays a role in mitigating the political consequences of the trade shock, arguably because it alleviates economic distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2019. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 19-05, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:1905
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
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    3. Osman S Kiratli, 2023. "Loving globalization: High-growth enterprises and public opinion on globalization in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(2), pages 286-306, June.
    4. D’Ambrosio, Anna & Leombruni, Roberto & Razzolini, Tiziano, 2021. ""Fear Is the Path to the Dark Side". Electoral Results and the Workplace Safety of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 14322, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Albanese, Giuseppe & Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido, 2022. "Populist voting and losers’ discontent: Does redistribution matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.
    7. Carl Leonard Fischer & Lorenz Meister, 2023. "Economic Determinants of Populism," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 145, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Burgoon, Brian & Nicoli, Francesco, 2023. "Is european attachment sufficiently strong to support an EU fiscal capacity: Evidence from a conjoint experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2024. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2024. "Trust we lost: The impact of the Treuhand experience on political alienation in East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 54-75.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade globalization; populism; inequality; Handelsglobalisierung; Populismus; Einkommensgefälle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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