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Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment

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  • Lechler, Marie

Abstract

Euroscepticism and the rise of populist parties have often been linked to economic insecurity. This paper identifies regional employment changes as causal factors for forming attitudes towards the European Union and voting for eurosceptic parties in European Parliament elections. To do so, I combine industry-specific employment data for roughly 260 European NUTS II regions with individual-level Eurobarometer survey data for the past 20 years and regional voting results. I apply panel data and instrumental variable methods; for the latter I construct a Bartik-style instrument, which predicts employment changes on the basis of regional industry specialization and Europe-wide sector specific employment growth rates. The effect of employment changes on attitudes towards the EU is particularly strong for unemployed and low-skilled workers in regions with a high share of migrants from other European member states, which supports the narrative that ‘losers of globalization’ tend to be more skeptical towards economic and political integration.

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  • Lechler, Marie, 2019. "Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 266-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:266-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter, Julia & Übelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Regional Determinants of Attitudes Towards Immigrants," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277664, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    3. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    4. Steven J. Bosworth & Dennis J. Snower, 2019. "The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7935, CESifo.
    5. Enrique López-Bazo, 2021. "Does regional growth affect public attitudes towards the European Union?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 755-778, June.
    6. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Snower, Dennis J. & Bosworth, Steven J., 2021. "Economic, social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth, identity, populism and protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. ,, 2019. "The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    10. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 2020. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 561-572, July.
    11. Fornaro, Paolo & Kaihovaara, Antti, 2020. "Microdynamics, granularity and populism: The Finnish case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.
    13. Aleksandr Arsenev & Meryem Gökten & Philipp Heimberger & Andreas Lichtenberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2024. "Gender and Education Gaps in Employment: New Evidence for the EU," wiiw Working Papers 251, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European integration; Regional employment; EU attitudes; European Parliament elections; EU migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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