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Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited

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  • Backes, Annika
  • Müller, Steffen

Abstract

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

Suggested Citation

  • Backes, Annika & Müller, Steffen, 2024. "Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:287751
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalization; import shocks; populism; voting behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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