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Globalization, robotization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy

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  • Mauro Caselli
  • Andrea Fracasso
  • Silvio Traverso

Abstract

Criticism of economic globalization and technological progress has gained support in Italy in the last two decades but, due to the di↵erentiated exposure of local communities to this process, political outcomes have varied considerably across the country. By observing the local impact of three global economic phenomena (flows of migrants, foreign competition in international trade, and di↵usion of robots) alongside with the patterns of local electoral outcomes potentially associated with discontent, this work analyses from a spatial perspective the economic forces driving the evolution of general elections in 2001, 2008 and 2013 in Italy. The analysis reveals that all these global factors had an impact on political outcomes associated with discontent, albeit in different ways and changing over time. These novel em- pirical results indicate that these global drivers interacted with elements pertaining to the political supply, such as party federation and scandals. By combining various methodological advances coming from the political geography and the political economy literature, this work attempts to bridge disciplines sharing similar interests but adopting di↵erent tools of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2019. "Globalization, robotization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," DEM Working Papers 2019/5, Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwprg:2019/05
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Paolo Falco, 2020. "As Long as They are Cheap Experimental Evidence on the Demand for Migrant Workers," Development Working Papers 466, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 08 Sep 2020.
    2. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Stanig, Piero, 2021. "The backlash of globalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113860, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    4. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    5. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Italo Colantone & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Piero Stanig, 2021. "The Backlash of Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 9289, CESifo.
    7. Eugenio Levi & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 833-875, October.
    8. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," GLO Discussion Paper Series 683, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    12. Brey, Björn, 2024. "The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    13. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Leah Platt Boustan & Jiwon Choi & David Clingingsmith, 2024. "The Political Fallout of Machine Tool Automation in the Mid-20th Century United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic History of American Inequality: New Evidence and Perspectives, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.
    17. Arntz, Melanie & Blesse, Sebastian & Doerrenberg, Philipp, 2022. "The end of work is near, isn't it? Survey evidence on automation angst," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indirect inference; directional statistics; stable distribution; weighting matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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