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Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting

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  • Cerqua, Augusto
  • Ferrante, Chiara
  • Letta, Marco

Abstract

A growing literature has highlighted the role of economic grievances, global transformations, cultural cleavages and long-term trends of isolation and decline in engendering political discontent. However, this literature is silent on the potential role of unanticipated local shocks in fuelling support for authoritarian parties. We fill this gap by using comprehensive data at a fine spatial scale and a comparative natural experiment approach. Our study documents that the occurrence of two destructive earthquakes in Italy resulted in sharply diverging electoral outcomes: while the 2012 Emilia quake did not alter voting behaviour, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake paved the way for an impressive and persistent authoritarian backlash in the most affected areas. Such heterogeneous patterns originate from a stark contrast in post-disaster reconstruction processes and shifts in institutional trust. These findings suggest that valence issues generated from local shocks can turn “places that don't recover” into authoritarian hotbeds.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:156:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123000934
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104464
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Authoritarian voting; Political discontent; Natural disasters; Earthquakes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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