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Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen? Evidenz für deutsche Metropolregionen

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  • Bachmann, Ronald
  • Storm, Eduard

Abstract

Die digitale und ökologische Transformation verändert die Arbeitsnachfrage sowie die geforderten Kompetenzen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Dieses Papier untersucht die resultierende Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in zehn Zukunftsberufen und fünf deutschen Metropolregionen. Erstens wird die Entwicklung der Beschäftigung mittels administrativer Daten untersucht. Dabei zeigt sich ein überdurchschnittliches Beschäftigungswachstum in Zukunftsberufen, besonders in digitalen Berufen wie der Softwareentwicklung oder grünen Berufen wie der Ver- und Entsorgung. Zweitens werden mit Hilfe von Online-Stellenanzeigen die Höhe der Arbeitsnachfrage nach Beschäftigten sowie die Nachfrage nach digitalen und grünen Kompetenzen innerhalb der Zukunftsberufe untersucht. Diese Analysen weisen auf unterschiedliche regionale Bewältigungsstrategien hin: Während digitale Berufe eine gleichmäßig hohe Nachfrage aufweisen, bestehen in grünen Berufen erhebliche regionale Unterschiede. Drittens zeigt eine Untersuchung des Arbeitsangebots aus dem tertiären und dualen Bildungssystem, dass das Arbeitsangebot, insbesondere in MINT-Fächern und dualen Ausbildungsberufen, hinter der wachsenden Nachfrage zurückbleibt. Abschließend wird erörtert, in welchen Berufen und Regionen zukünftig ein starker Fachkräftemangel zu erwarten ist und welche Maßnahmen zur Bewältigung dieser Herausforderung geeignet erscheinen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Ronald & Storm, Eduard, 2024. "Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen? Evidenz für deutsche Metropolregionen," RWI Materialien 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:302174
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ökologische Transformation; Digitalisierung; Arbeitsnachfrage; Arbeitsangebot; Fachkräftemangel; Online-Stellenanzeigen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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