IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwimat/302174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen? Evidenz für deutsche Metropolregionen

Author

Listed:
  • Bachmann, Ronald
  • Storm, Eduard

Abstract

Die digitale und ökologische Transformation verändert die Arbeitsnachfrage sowie die geforderten Kompetenzen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Dieses Papier untersucht die resultierende Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in zehn Zukunftsberufen und fünf deutschen Metropolregionen. Erstens wird die Entwicklung der Beschäftigung mittels administrativer Daten untersucht. Dabei zeigt sich ein überdurchschnittliches Beschäftigungswachstum in Zukunftsberufen, besonders in digitalen Berufen wie der Softwareentwicklung oder grünen Berufen wie der Ver- und Entsorgung. Zweitens werden mit Hilfe von Online-Stellenanzeigen die Höhe der Arbeitsnachfrage nach Beschäftigten sowie die Nachfrage nach digitalen und grünen Kompetenzen innerhalb der Zukunftsberufe untersucht. Diese Analysen weisen auf unterschiedliche regionale Bewältigungsstrategien hin: Während digitale Berufe eine gleichmäßig hohe Nachfrage aufweisen, bestehen in grünen Berufen erhebliche regionale Unterschiede. Drittens zeigt eine Untersuchung des Arbeitsangebots aus dem tertiären und dualen Bildungssystem, dass das Arbeitsangebot, insbesondere in MINT-Fächern und dualen Ausbildungsberufen, hinter der wachsenden Nachfrage zurückbleibt. Abschließend wird erörtert, in welchen Berufen und Regionen zukünftig ein starker Fachkräftemangel zu erwarten ist und welche Maßnahmen zur Bewältigung dieser Herausforderung geeignet erscheinen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Ronald & Storm, Eduard, 2024. "Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen? Evidenz für deutsche Metropolregionen," RWI Materialien 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:302174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/302174/1/1900629437.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2009. "Job Polarization in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 58-63, May.
    2. Marguerita Lane & Morgan Williams, 2023. "Defining and classifying AI in the workplace," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 290, OECD Publishing.
    3. Ronald Bachmann & Merve Cim & Colin Green, 2019. "Long‐Run Patterns of Labour Market Polarization: Evidence from German Micro Data," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 350-376, June.
    4. Barbara Boelmann, 2024. "Women's Missing Mobility and the Gender Gap in Higher Education: Evidence from Germany's University Expansion," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_518, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Janser, Markus, 2018. "The greening of jobs in Germany : First evidence from a text mining based index and employment register data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201814, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    7. E. Mark Curtis & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "Green Energy Jobs in the US: What Are They, and Where Are They?," NBER Working Papers 30332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aakash Kalyani & Nicholas Bloom & Marcela Carvalho & Tarek Alexander Hassan & Josh Lerner & Ahmed Tahoun, 2021. "The Diffusion of New Technologies," NBER Working Papers 28999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2020. "Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Giorgio Brunello & Patricia Wruuck, 2021. "Skill shortages and skill mismatch: A review of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1145-1167, September.
    11. Gathmann, Christina & Kagerl, Christian & Pohlan, Laura & Roth, Duncan, 2024. "The pandemic push: Digital technologies and workforce adjustments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Holger Bonin & Ulf Rinne, 2022. "Die Zeitenwende erreicht den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt [Germany’s Labour Market at a Turning Point]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(9), pages 665-668, September.
    13. Stops, Michael & Bächmann, Ann-Christin & Glassner, Ralf & Janser, Markus & Matthes, Britta & Metzger, Lina-Jeanette & Müller, Christoph & Seitz, Joachim, 2021. "Extracting Skill Requirements from Job Ads – the “Machbarkeitsstudie Kompetenz-Kompass”," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202107, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Barbara Boelmann, 2024. "Women’s Missing Mobility and the Gender Gap in Higher Education: Evidence from Germany’s University Expansion," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 280, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bachmann, Ronald & Gonschor, Myrielle & Storm, Eduard & Evans, Julian, 2024. "Berufe der Zukunft im Ruhrgebiet: Studie im Auftrag des Regionalverbands Ruhr. Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 296884, December.
    2. Genz Sabrina & Janser Markus & Lehmer Florian, 2019. "The Impact of Investments in New Digital Technologies on Wages – Worker-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(3), pages 483-521, June.
    3. Bachmann, Ronald & Stepanyan, Gayane, 2020. "It's a Woman's World? Occupational Structure and the Rise of Female Employment in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224626, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Tamm, Marcus, 2018. "Training and changes in job Tasks," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 137-147.
    5. Delaporte, Isaure & Peña, Werner, 2023. "The Dynamics of Labour Market Polarization in Chile: An Analysis of the Link Between Technical Change and Informality," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1262, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Ronald Bachmann & Gökay Demir & Hanna Frings, 2022. "Labor Market Polarization, Job Tasks, and Monopsony Power," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 11-49.
    7. Nicola Cassandro & Marco Centra & Dario Guarascio & Piero Esposito, 2021. "What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1109-1147, October.
    8. Genz Sabrina & Janser Markus & Lehmer Florian, 2019. "The Impact of Investments in New Digital Technologies on Wages – Worker-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(3), pages 483-521, June.
    9. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    10. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    11. Christian Gschwendt, 2022. "Routine job dynamics in the Swiss labor market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Goehausen, Johannes & Thomsen, Stephan L., 2024. "Early Career Effects of Entering the Labor Market During Higher Education Expansion," IZA Discussion Papers 17487, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ronald Bachmann & Gökay Demir & Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff, 2022. "The Role of Within-Occupation Task Changes in Wage Development," Working Papers 2022-20, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    14. Sarra Ben Yahmed & Francesco Berlingieri & Eduard Brüll, 2024. "Local Labour Market Resilience: The Role of Digitalisation and Working from Home," CESifo Working Paper Series 11114, CESifo.
    15. Tommaso AGASISTI & Geraint JOHNES & Marco PACCAGNELLA, 2021. "Tasks, occupations and wages in OECD countries," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 160(1), pages 85-112, March.
    16. Holmes, Craig & Mayhew, Ken, 2015. "Have UK Earnings Distributions Polarised?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2015-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. Tschopp, Jeanne, 2015. "The Wage Response to Shocks: The Role of Inter-Occupational Labour Adjustment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 28-37.
    18. Stenberg, Anders & Westerlund, Olle, 2016. "Flexibility at a cost – Should governments stimulate tertiary education for adults?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 69-86.
    19. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    20. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Martí & Danieli, Ana, 2020. "Income-Driven Labor Market Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ökologische Transformation; Digitalisierung; Arbeitsnachfrage; Arbeitsangebot; Fachkräftemangel; Online-Stellenanzeigen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:302174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.