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Optimal revelation of life-changing information

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  • Schweizer, Nikolaus
  • Szech, Nora

Abstract

Information about the future may be instrumentally useful, yet scary. For example, many patients shy away from precise genetic tests about their dispositions for severe diseases. They are afraid that a bad test result could render them desperate due to anticipatory feelings. We show that partially revealing tests are typically optimal when anticipatory utility interacts with an instrumental need for information. The same result emerges when patients rely on probability weighting. Optimal tests provide only two signals, which renders them easily implementable. While the good signal is typically precise, the bad one remains coarse. This way, patients have a substantial chance to learn that they are free of the genetic risk in question. Yet even if the test outcome is bad, they do not end in a situation of no hope.

Suggested Citation

  • Schweizer, Nikolaus & Szech, Nora, 2016. "Optimal revelation of life-changing information," Working Paper Series in Economics 90, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:90
    DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000055427
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Mariotti & Nikolaus Schweizer & Nora Szech & Jonas von Wangenheim, 2023. "Information Nudges and Self-Control," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2182-2197, April.
    2. Lane, Tom, 2022. "Intrinsic preferences for unhappy news," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 119-130.
    3. Marta Serra-Garcia & Nora Szech, 2020. "Demand for Covid-19 Antibody Testing, and Why It Should Be Free," CESifo Working Paper Series 8340, CESifo.
    4. Serra Garcia, Marta & Szech, Nora, 2020. "Understanding demand for COVID-19 antibody testing," Working Paper Series in Economics 140, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Elias Carroni & Giuseppe Pignataro & Luigi Siciliani, 2023. "Persuasion in Physician Agency," Discussion Papers 23/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Ricardo Alonso & Odilon Câmara, 2024. "Organizing Data Analytics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(5), pages 3123-3143, May.
    7. Ayouni, Mehdi & Friehe, Tim & Gabuthy, Yannick, 2024. "Bayesian persuasion in lawyer–client communication," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2021. "Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Hedlund, Jonas, 2017. "Bayesian persuasion by a privately informed sender," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 229-268.
    10. Simeon Schudy & Verena Utikal, 2018. "Does Imperfect Data Privacy Stop People from Collecting Personal Data?," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Hedlund, Jonas & Hernandez-Chanto, Allan & Oyarzun, Carlos, 2024. "Contagion management through information disclosure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    12. Marta Serra-Garcia & Nora Szech, 2023. "Incentives and Defaults Can Increase COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions and Test Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1037-1049, February.
    13. Ozan Candogan & Philipp Strack, 2021. "Optimal Disclosure of Information to a Privately Informed Receiver," Papers 2101.10431, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    14. Candogan, Ozan & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Optimal disclosure of information to privately informed agents," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
    15. Daniele Pennesi, 2020. "Identity and information acquisition," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 610, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2021.
    16. Duraj, Jetlir & He, Kevin, 2024. "Dynamic information preference and communication with diminishing sensitivity over news," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(3), July.
    17. Farzaneh Farhadi & Demosthenis Teneketzis, 2022. "Dynamic Information Design: A Simple Problem on Optimal Sequential Information Disclosure," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 443-484, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Test Design; Revelation of Information; Design of Beliefs; Medical Tests; Anticipatory Utility; Huntington's Disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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