IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/74077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc
[Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco]

Author

Listed:
  • Loumrhari, Ghizlan

Abstract

The objective of this article is to estimate the effects of the population aging on the financial viability of the pension system and the macroeconomic evolution in a general way. To do it, we built a computational OLG model. The results show that the current ageing and which will accelerate in the 2030s will have dramatic consequences both on the financial and economic plans. The increase of the rate of contribution and the reduction in retirement pensions if they can assure the financial balance of pension funds seem impossible to be implemented economically and socially. Indeed, to maintain the balance of pension funds, the government should increase the rate of contributions of 20 points or to lower the benefits of practically 30 %. Certainly, it is always possible to combine these two reforms with an increase of two years the retirement age and the introduction of a dose of capitalization but it seems insufficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2016. "Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc [Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco]," MPRA Paper 74077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74077/1/MPRA_paper_74077.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    4. Kindermann, Fabian, 2015. "Earnings related pension schemes and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 19-54, January.
    5. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    6. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    7. Docquier, Frederic & Paddison, Oliver, 2003. "Social security benefit rules, growth and inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-71, March.
    8. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
    9. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    10. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Human capital, income, fertility and child policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(7), pages 1-7.
    11. Buyse, Tim & Heylen, Freddy & Van De Kerckhove, Renaat, 2017. "Pension reform in an OLG model with heterogeneous abilities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 144-172, April.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    13. Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James & Ohanian, Lee, 2004. "Trend-reverting fluctuations in the life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 334-356, December.
    14. Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2008. "Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 65-93.
    15. Ben J. Heijdra & Laurie S. M. Reijnders, 2016. "Human Capital Accumulation and the Macroeconomy in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 297-334, September.
    16. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
    17. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2013. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 769-809, April.
    18. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    20. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 146, pages 640-647.
    21. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2005. "Pensions and fertility incentives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 28-48, February.
    22. Broer, D. Peter & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23, June.
    23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    24. Mohamed Bouzahzah & Frédéric Docquier & Oliver Paddison, 2002. "Retraites, croissance et inégalités en présence d'individus myopes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 155(4), pages 31-44.
    25. Gerhard Glomm & B. Ravikumar, 1998. "Flat-Rate Taxes, Government Spending on Education, and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 306-325, January.
    26. Chateau, Jean & Chojnicki, Xavier & Magnani, Riccardo, 2009. "Disparities in pension systems and financial flows among European countries," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, January.
    27. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2009. "Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(2), pages 137-163, April.
    28. Frédéric Docquier, 1994. "Transferts publics et transition démographique en Belgique: une approche par l'équilibre général," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 141, pages 89-115.
    29. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
    30. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
    31. Sadahiro, Akira & Shimasawa, Manabu, 2003. "The computable overlapping generations model with an endogenous growth mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    32. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
    33. Freddy Heylen & Pieter Van Rymenant & Brecht Boone & Tim Buyse, 2016. "On The Possibility And Driving Forces Of Secular Stagnation - A General Equilibrium Analysis Applied To Belgium -," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/919, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    34. Boucekkine, Raouf & Le Van, Cuong, 1996. "Checking for Saddlepoint Stability: An Easy Test," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 317-330, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devriendt, Willem & Heylen, Freddy & Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Coping with demographic change: macroeconomic performance and welfare inequality effects of public pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 425-449, July.
    2. Willem DEVRIENDT & Freddy HEYLEN, 2020. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Demographic Change in an Open Economy - The Case of Belgium," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 87-124, March.
    3. Freddy Heylen & Pieter Van Rymenant & Brecht Boone & Tim Buyse, 2016. "On The Possibility And Driving Forces Of Secular Stagnation - A General Equilibrium Analysis Applied To Belgium -," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/919, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Brecht Boone & Freddy Heylen, 2019. "Cross‐Country Differences in Unemployment: Fiscal Policy, Unions, and Household Preferences in General Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1270-1302, July.
    5. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2013. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 769-809, April.
    6. Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2014. "Heterogeneous ability and the effects of fiscal policy on employment, income and welfare in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/898, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. T. Buyse & F. Heylen & R. Van De Kerckhove, 2011. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth in OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/719, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    9. Buyse, Tim & Heylen, Freddy & Van De Kerckhove, Renaat, 2017. "Pension reform in an OLG model with heterogeneous abilities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 144-172, April.
    10. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    12. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    13. Magnani, Riccardo, 2011. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the sustainability of the new pension reforms in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 5-35, March.
    14. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
    15. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    16. Heylen Freddy & Van de Kerckhove Renaat, 2013. "Employment by age, education, and economic growth: effects of fiscal policy composition in general equilibrium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 49-103, October.
    17. repec:ecb:ecbops:2014165 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dieppe, Alistair & Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Marchiori, Luca & Grech, Owen & Albani, Maria & Lalouette, Laure & Kulikov, Dmitry & Papadopoulou, Niki & Sideris, Dimitris & Irac, Delphine & Gordo Mora, , 2015. "Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth," Occasional Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
    19. Marchiori, Luca, 2011. "Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2100-2120, September.
    20. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2016. "The effects of education and aging in an OLG model: long-run growth in France, Germany and Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 757-800, November.
    21. Peter J. Stauvermann & Frank Wernitz, 2019. "Why Child Allowances Fail to Solve the Pension Problem of Aging Societies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vieillissement démographiques; systèmes de retraite; modèles à générations imbriquées; Maroc;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.