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International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Thomas F. Helbling

Abstract

In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Thomas F. Helbling, 2010. "International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 16103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16103
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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