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Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880

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  • Michael Artis
  • George Chouliarakis
  • Pkg Harischandra

Abstract

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market economies. The paper offers evidence in favour of a secular increase in international business cycle synchronization within a group of European and a group of English-speaking economies that started during 1950-1973 and accelerated since 1973. Yet, in other regions of the world, country-specific shocks are still the dominant forces of business cycle dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & George Chouliarakis & Pkg Harischandra, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 153, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:153
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    Cited by:

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    2. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
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    5. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2011. "Measuring globalization: A hierarchical network approach," CREMA Working Paper Series 2011-11, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    6. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2020. "Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 272-287.
    7. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870s," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 467-472.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Sarantitis, Georgios Antonios, 2016. "International business cycle synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a novel network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 286-296.
    10. N. Antonakakis & H. Badinger, 2014. "International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3682-3694, October.
    11. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2015. "Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 133-158.
    13. Łukasz Lenart & Mateusz Pipień, 2017. "Non-Parametric Test for the Existence of the Common Deterministic Cycle: The Case of the Selected European Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 201-241, September.
    14. Thomas L. Hogan, Daniel J. Smith, Robin Aguiar-Hicks, 2018. "Central Banking without Romance," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 293-314, December.
    15. Tiago Trancoso, 2013. "Global macroeconomic interdependence: a minimum spanning tree approach," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 179-189, June.
    16. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.
    17. Thomas Lux & Duc Thi Luu & Boyan Yanovski, 2020. "An analysis of systemic risk in worldwide economic sentiment indices," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 909-928, November.
    18. Kovačić, Zlatko & Vilotić, Miloš, 2017. "Assessing European business cycles synchronization," MPRA Paper 79990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Luu, Duc Thi & Yanovski, Boyan & Lux, Thomas, 2018. "An analysis of systematic risk in worldwide econonomic sentiment indices," Economics Working Papers 2018-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    20. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Spillover of sentiment in the European Union: Evidence from time- and frequency-domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 105-130.
    21. António M Lopes & J A Tenreiro Machado & John S Huffstot & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2018. "Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    22. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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