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New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment

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  • Romer, Christina

Abstract

The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correlation properities of the new macroeconomic series and investigates the Okun's Law relationship between unemployment and GNP, concluding with an evaluation of the assumptions underlying the old and new data.

Suggested Citation

  • Romer, Christina, 1986. "New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 341-352, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:46:y:1986:i:02:p:341-352_04
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Artis & George Chouliarakis & P. K. G. Harischandra, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 173-207, March.
    2. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "Labor Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Historical Working Papers 0058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Gottschalk, Jan & Kamps, Christophe & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Strauß, Hubert, 2001. "Deutliche Abkühlung der Weltkonjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2572, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    8. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "A Century of Labor-Leisure Distortions," NBER Working Papers 8774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael W. Klein, 1994. "The real exchange rate and fiscal policy during the gold standard period: evidence from the United States and Great Britain," International Finance Discussion Papers 482, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Pooyan Amir‐Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2016. "Drifts and volatilities under measurement error: Assessing monetary policy shocks over the last century," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 591-611, July.
    11. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.
    12. Barry Eichengreen, 1987. "Trade deficits in the long run," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 239-285.
    13. J. Bradford De Long, 1996. "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the Employment Act of 1946," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 41-53, Summer.
    14. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "What is a Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 3863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Allen, Steven G., 1989. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259452, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Ahmad A. Borazan, 2015. "On the Way to the Great Depression, The Demand Regime of the US Economy (1900-1929)," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2015_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    17. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    18. Mulligan, Casey B., 2001. "A Century of Labor-Leisure Distortions," Working Papers 170, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    19. Parker, Randall E. & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Further evidence on the stabilization of postwar economic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-298.

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