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Congestion and Safety: A Spatial Analysis of London

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  • Robert B. Noland
  • Mohammed A. Quddus

Abstract

Spatially disaggregate Enumeration District (ED) level data for London is used in an analysis of various area-wide factors on road casualties. Data on 15335 EDs was input into a geographic information system (GIS) that contained data on road characteristics, public transport accessibility, information of nearest hospital location, car ownership and road casualties. Demographic data for each ED was also included. Various count data models e.g., negative binomial or zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models were used to analyze the associations between these factors with traffic fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries. Different levels of spatial aggregation were also examined to determine if this affected interpretation of the results. Different pedestrian casualties were also examined. Results suggest that dissimilar count models may have to be adopted for modeling different types of accidents based on the dependent variable. Results also suggest that EDs with more roundabouts are safer than EDs with more junctions. More motorways are found to be related to fewer pedestrian casualties but higher traffic casualties. Number of households with no car seems to have more traffic casualties. Distance of the nearest hospital from EDs tends to have no significant effect on casualties. In all cases, it is found that EDs with more employees are associated with fewer casualties.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Noland & Mohammed A. Quddus, 2003. "Congestion and Safety: A Spatial Analysis of London," ERSA conference papers ersa03p66, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa03p66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Geng, Kexin & Wang, Yacan & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Guarda, Pablo, 2023. "Commuter departure time choice behavior under congestion charge: Analysis based on cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Peck, Dana & Scott Matthews, H. & Fischbeck, Paul & Hendrickson, Chris T., 2015. "Failure rates and data driven policies for vehicle safety inspections in Pennsylvania," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 252-265.
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    6. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2017. "When Labor Disputes Bring Cities to a Standstill: The Impact of Public Transit Strikes on Traffic, Accidents, Air Pollution, and Health," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, February.
    7. Holgun-Veras, Jos & Cetin, Mecit, 2009. "Optimal tolls for multi-class traffic: Analytical formulations and policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 445-467, May.
    8. Craig A. Talmage & Chad Frederick, 2019. "Quality of Life, Multimodality, and the Demise of the Autocentric Metropolis: A Multivariate Analysis of 148 Mid-Size U.S. Cities," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 365-390, January.
    9. Szumska Emilia & Frej Damian & Grabski Paweł, 2020. "Analysis of the Causes of Vehicle Accidents in Poland in 2009-2019," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 76-87, November.
    10. Guo, Miao & Zhao, Xiaohua & Yao, Ying & Bi, Chaofan & Su, Yuelong, 2022. "Application of risky driving behavior in crash detection and analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
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    12. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
    13. Wang, Zhengli & Jiang, Hai, 2019. "Simultaneous correction of the time and location bias associated with a reported crash by exploiting the spatiotemporal evolution of travel speed," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 199-223.
    14. Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Arévalo-Quijada, M. Teresa, 2018. "Assessing urban road safety through multidimensional indexes: Application of multicriteria decision making analysis to rank the Spanish provinces," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-129.
    15. Hanson, Christopher S. & Noland, Robert B. & Brown, Charles, 2013. "The severity of pedestrian crashes: an analysis using Google Street View imagery," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 42-53.
    16. Perez-Prada, Fiamma & Monzon, Andres, 2017. "Ex-post environmental and traffic assessment of a speed reduction strategy in Madrid's inner ring-road," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 256-268.
    17. Holgui­n-Veras, Jose & Cetin, Mecit & Xia, Shuwen, 2006. "A comparative analysis of US toll policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 852-871, December.
    18. Angus Eugene Retallack & Bertram Ostendorf, 2019. "Current Understanding of the Effects of Congestion on Traffic Accidents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-13, September.
    19. Pirdavani, Ali & Bellemans, Tom & Brijs, Tom & Kochan, Bruno & Wets, Geert, 2014. "Assessing the road safety impacts of a teleworking policy by means of geographically weighted regression method," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 96-110.
    20. Daniel Albalate, 2013. "The Road against Fatalities: Infrastructure Spending vs. Regulation?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p221, European Regional Science Association.
    21. Robert Noland & Mohammed Quddus & Washington Ochieng, 2008. "The effect of the London congestion charge on road casualties: an intervention analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 73-91, January.
    22. Albalate, Daniel & Fageda, Xavier, 2021. "On the relationship between congestion and road safety in cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 145-152.
    23. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2020. "Why are highway speed limits really justified? An equilibrium speed choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 317-351.
    24. Claudio Caterino & Luigi M. Solivetti, 2022. "Spatial distribution of serious traffic accidents and its persistence over time in Milan," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(1), pages 23-33, January-M.

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