IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v39y2014icp96-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the road safety impacts of a teleworking policy by means of geographically weighted regression method

Author

Listed:
  • Pirdavani, Ali
  • Bellemans, Tom
  • Brijs, Tom
  • Kochan, Bruno
  • Wets, Geert

Abstract

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the effectiveness of transportation systems by changing travel behavior. The primary objective of such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to simulate the traffic safety impact of conducting a teleworking scenario (i.e. 5% of the working population engages in teleworking) in the study area, Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at a geographically aggregated level, crash prediction models should also be developed at an aggregate level. Given that crash occurrences are often spatially heterogeneous and are affected by many spatial variables, the existence of spatial correlation in the data is also examined. The results indicate the necessity of accounting for the spatial correlation when developing crash prediction models. Therefore, zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) within the geographically weighted generalized linear modeling framework are developed to incorporate the spatial variations in association between the number of crashes (including fatal, severe and slight injury crashes recorded between 2004 and 2007) and other explanatory variables. Different exposure, network and socio-demographic variables of 2200 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) are considered as predictors of crashes. An activity-based transportation model framework is adopted to produce detailed exposure metrics. This enables to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models. In this study, several ZCPMs with different severity levels and crash types are developed to predict crash counts for both the null and the teleworking scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the teleworking scenario due to its impact on the reduction of total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) by 3.15%. Implementing the teleworking scenario is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 1.43billion and the total number of crashes to decline by 2.6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pirdavani, Ali & Bellemans, Tom & Brijs, Tom & Kochan, Bruno & Wets, Geert, 2014. "Assessing the road safety impacts of a teleworking policy by means of geographically weighted regression method," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 96-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:96-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.06.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001355
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.06.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sangho Choo & Patricia Mokhtarian & Ilan Salomon, 2005. "Does telecommuting reduce vehicle-miles traveled? An aggregate time series analysis for the U.S," Transportation, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 37-64, January.
    2. Selby, Brent & Kockelman, Kara M., 2013. "Spatial prediction of traffic levels in unmeasured locations: applications of universal kriging and geographically weighted regression," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 24-32.
    3. Noland, Robert B. & Quddus, Mohammed A., 2005. "Congestion and safety: A spatial analysis of London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 737-754.
    4. Litman, Todd, 2003. "The Online TDM Encyclopedia: mobility management information gateway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 245-249, July.
    5. Davidson, William & Donnelly, Robert & Vovsha, Peter & Freedman, Joel & Ruegg, Steve & Hicks, Jim & Castiglione, Joe & Picado, Rosella, 2007. "Synthesis of first practices and operational research approaches in activity-based travel demand modeling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 464-488, June.
    6. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2007. "Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 4-18, January.
    7. Blainey, Simon, 2010. "Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 153-165.
    8. Arentze, Theo A. & Timmermans, Harry J. P., 2004. "A learning-based transportation oriented simulation system," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 613-633, August.
    9. Mokhtarian, Patricia L & Koenig, Brett E & Henderson, Dennis K, 1995. "The Travel and Emissions Impacts of Telecommuting for the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6rw695kc, University of California Transportation Center.
    10. Henderson, Dennis K. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1996. "Impacts of Center-Based Telecommuting on Travel and Emissions: Analysis of the Puget Sound Demonstration Project," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1250382t, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Mokhtarian, Patricia & Varma, Krishna, 1998. "The Trade-Off Between Trips and Distance Traveled in Analyzing the Emissions Impacts of Center-Based Telecommuting," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt43b756qg, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    12. Dissanayake, Dilum & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2008. "Impact assessment of satellite centre-based telecommuting on travel and air quality in developing countries by exploring the link between travel behaviour and urban form," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 883-894, July.
    13. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chengcheng Xu & Yuxuan Wang & Wei Ding & Pan Liu, 2020. "Modeling the Spatial Effects of Land-Use Patterns on Traffic Safety Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1015-1028, December.
    2. Guandong Su & Hidenori Okahashi & Lin Chen, 2018. "Spatial Pattern of Farmland Abandonment in Japan: Identification and Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Mohammad Abu Afrahim Bhuiyan & Shakil Mohammad Rifaat & Richard Tay & Alex De Barros, 2020. "Influence of Community Design and Sociodemographic Characteristics on Teleworking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Rodrigues, Daniel Souto & Ribeiro, Paulo Jorge Gomes & da Silva Nogueira, Isabel Cristina, 2015. "Safety classification using GIS in decision-making process to define priority road interventions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 101-110.
    5. Blazquez, Carola A. & Calderón, Juan Felipe & Puelma, Isabel, 2020. "Towards a safe and sustainable mobility: Spatial-temporal analysis of bicycle crashes in Chile," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Wang, Chih-Hao & Chen, Na, 2017. "A geographically weighted regression approach to investigating the spatially varied built-environment effects on community opportunity," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 136-147.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Hook & Victor Court & Benjamin K Sovacool & Steven Sorrell, 2020. "A Systematic Review of the Energy and Climate Impacts of Teleworking," Working Papers hal-03192905, HAL.
    2. Walls, Margaret & Safirova, Elena, 2004. "A Review of the Literature on Telecommuting and Its Implications for Vehicle Travel and Emissions," Discussion Papers 10492, Resources for the Future.
    3. Kong, Hui & Moody, Joanna & Zhao, Jinhua, 2020. "ICT’s impacts on ride-hailing use and individual travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Brown, Colby & Balepur, Prashant & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "Communication Chains: A Methodology for Assessing the Effects of the Internet on Communication and Travel," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4cf351bc, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Choo, Sangho, 2003. "Aggregate Relationships between Telecommunications and Travel: Structural Equation Modeling of Time Series Data," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4p78h623, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Okyere, Dennis Kwadwo & Poku-Boansi, Michael & Adarkwa, Kwasi Kwafo, 2018. "Connecting the dots: The nexus between transport and telecommunication in Ghana," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 836-844.
    7. Margaret Walls & Peter Nelson & Elena Safirova, 2005. "Telecommuting and environmental policy - lessons from the Ecommute program," ERSA conference papers ersa05p801, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Pengyu Zhu & Liping Wang & Yanpeng Jiang & Jiangping Zhou, 2018. "Metropolitan size and the impacts of telecommuting on personal travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 385-414, March.
    9. Nayak, Suchismita & Pandit, Debapratim, 2021. "Potential of telecommuting for different employees in the Indian context beyond COVID-19 lockdown," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 98-110.
    10. Kim, Seung-Nam & Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2015. "Home-based telecommuting and intra-household interactions in work and non-work travel: A seemingly unrelated censored regression approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 197-214.
    11. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sivakumar, Aruna & Axhausen, Kay W., 2003. "An analysis of the impact of information and communication technologies on non-maintenance shopping activities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 857-881, December.
    12. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 2002. "Impacts of Home-Based Telecommuting on Vehicle-Miles Traveled: A Nationwide Time Series Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2gj976x6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    13. Golob, Thomas F., 2002. "travelbehavior.com - Activity Approaches to Modeling the Effects of Information Technology on Personal Travel Behavior," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9t40s1mc, University of California Transportation Center.
    14. Najaf, Pooya & Thill, Jean-Claude & Zhang, Wenjia & Fields, Milton Greg, 2018. "City-level urban form and traffic safety: A structural equation modeling analysis of direct and indirect effects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 257-270.
    15. Ozbilen, Basar & Wang, Kailai & Akar, Gulsah, 2021. "Revisiting the impacts of virtual mobility on travel behavior: An exploration of daily travel time expenditures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 49-62.
    16. Balepur, Prashant Narayan, 1998. "Impacts of Computer-Mediated Communication on Travel and Communication Patterns: The Davis Community Network Study," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6cb1f85c, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    17. Roy, P. & Martínez, A.J. & Miscione, G. & Zuidgeest, M.H.P. & van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M., 2012. "Using Social Network Analysis to profile people based on their e-communication and travel balance," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 111-122.
    18. Hong, Jinhyun & Thakuriah, Piyushimita Vonu, 2018. "Examining the relationship between different urbanization settings, smartphone use to access the Internet and trip frequencies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 11-18.
    19. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    20. Georges A. Tanguay & Ugo Lachapelle, 2019. "Potential Impacts of Telecommuting on Transportation Behaviours, Health and Hours Worked in Québec," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-07, CIRANO.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:96-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.