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The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism In Germany, The Uk And Ireland: A Simulation Study

Author

Listed:
  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals – as Western European international tourist demand falls – but later increase numbers – as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: Tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: Tourism shifts south.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism In Germany, The Uk And Ireland: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-115, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
    3. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
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    Cited by:

    1. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    2. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008. "Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
    3. P. Michael Link & Christine Schleupner, 2007. "Agricultural land use changes in Eiderstedt," Working Papers FNU-137, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.
    4. Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    5. Angel Bujosa & Jaume Rosselló, 2013. "Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 363-375, March.
    6. Jaume Rosselló Nadal, 2009. "The impact of the NAO index on European Airline Transit," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/5, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    7. Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
    8. Shih-Hao Wang & Meng-Tsung Lee & Pierre-Alexandre Château & Yang-Chi Chang, 2016. "Performance Indicator Framework for Evaluation of Sustainable Tourism in the Taiwan Coastal Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    9. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    10. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Christine Schleupner & P. Michael Link, 2007. "Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes," Working Papers FNU-138, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.
    12. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
    13. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    14. Yang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Chinese traditional perceptions of the calendar year: Implications of Jieqi for contemporary product development and sustainability," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 202-217.
    15. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Alistair Hunt & Paul Watkiss, 2011. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 13-49, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourism; domestic tourism; climate change; regional impacts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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