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Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume Roselló Nadal

    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

  • María Santana Gallego

    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

Abstract

The current pattern of international tourist flows evidences how climate is one of the main factors in the destination choice of tourists. Climate scientists are very certain that the Earth’s climate will change at an unprecedented rate over the 21st century, anticipating global warming. This paper investigates the role of climate and other determining variables in destination choice for international tourist flows. A model for international tourist arrivals is estimated by using bilateral tourism movements between 178 countries from 1995 to 2010, allowing the estimation of a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within the A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, the expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, showing and evaluating how climate change would imply a loss of attractiveness for raditional warmerdestinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    • Handle: RePEc:ubi:deawps:52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rosselló-Nadal, Jaume, 2014. "How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 334-340.
    2. Salvador Barrios & J. Ibañez, 2015. "Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 645-660, October.
    3. Salvador Barrios & Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas, 2013. "Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions," JRC Research Reports JRC80898, Joint Research Centre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourism flows; Climate Change; Gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment

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