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Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Mayor

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Richard S. J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp244
    as

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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP244.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate On Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers FNU-55, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Oct 2004.
    3. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 507-513, November.
    4. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
    5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    6. John FitzGerald & Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Airline emissions of carbon dioxide in the European trading system," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(01), pages 51-54, April.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    9. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
    10. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    11. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "The impact of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on international travel and carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7.
    12. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement on International Travel and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers WP191, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-177.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zaman, Khalid & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Raza, Syed Ali, 2016. "Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 275-283.
    4. Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Chengcai Tang & Linsheng Zhong & Wenjing Fan & Shengkui Cheng, 2015. "Energy consumption and carbon emission for tourism transport in World Heritage Sites: a case of the Wulingyuan area in China," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 134-150, May.
    7. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    8. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: analysis of historical trends by geographical zones using a macro-level methodology," Working Papers hal-02474644, HAL.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9262 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6794 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Liu, Xiao & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Wang, Qunwei, 2017. "What drives CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation? An exploration using a new generalized PDA method," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 30-45.
    12. Jiali Zheng & Han Qiao & Shouyang Wang, 2017. "The Effect of Carbon Tax in Aviation Industry on the Multilateral Simulation Game," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-24, July.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9263 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Vedant Singh, 2016. "Perceptions of emission reduction potential in air transport: a structural equation modeling approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 377-403, December.
    15. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    16. Shuxin Wang & Yiyuan Hu & Hong He & Genxu Wang, 2017. "Progress and Prospects for Tourism Footprint Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Azam, Muhammad & Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Hafeez, Muhammad Haroon, 2019. "Tourism and environmental quality nexus: Further evidence from Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand," SocArXiv 6ze5m, Center for Open Science.
    18. Kai Wang & Chang Gan & Yan Ou & Haolong Liu, 2019. "Low-Carbon Behaviour Performance of Scenic Spots in a World Heritage Site," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-23, July.
    19. Paul Peeters & Martin Landré, 2011. "The Emerging Global Tourism Geography—An Environmental Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.

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    Keywords

    Carbon dioxide emissions; international tourism; long-term forecasting; aviation;
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