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Climate Change, Tourism and Water Resources in the Mediterranean: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Roberto Roson
  • Martina Sartori

Abstract

This paper presents and discusses some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries. Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a Tourism Climate Index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitations, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. We estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model. We found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. We found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2012. "Climate Change, Tourism and Water Resources in the Mediterranean: A General Equilibrium Analysis," IEFE Working Papers 51, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    3. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    4. Brockmeier, Martina, 2001. "A Graphical Exposition Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28706, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008. "Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
    6. M. Antonelli & R. Roson & M. Sartori, 2012. "Systemic Input-Output Computation of Green and Blue Virtual Water ‘Flows’ with an Illustration for the Mediterranean Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4133-4146, November.
    7. Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA-Tourism study," JRC Research Reports JRC55392, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    9. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2010. "Water Scarcity and Virtual Water Trade in the Mediterranean," Working Papers 2010_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Brockmeier, Martina, 2001. "A Graphical Exposition of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 311, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    12. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
    13. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    14. Gössling, Stefan & Peeters, Paul & Hall, C. Michael & Ceron, Jean-Paul & Dubois, Ghislain & Lehmann, La Vergne & Scott, Daniel, 2012. "Tourism and water use: Supply, demand, and security. An international review," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-15.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of future water scarcity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1141-1162.
    2. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, the World Bank, Washington D.C., 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity," EcoMod2016 9167, EcoMod.
    3. Andrea Fracasso & Martina Sartori & Stefano Schiavo, 2014. "Determinants of Virtual Water Flows in the Mediterranean," IEFE Working Papers 75, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Working Papers 2016:07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Maria Torres-Bagur & Anna Ribas & Josep Vila-Subirós, 2019. "Incentives and Barriers to Water-Saving Measures in Hotels in the Mediterranean: A Case Study of the Muga River Basin (Girona, Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-16, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Computable General Equilibrium; Tourism; Water; Tourism Climate Index.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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