IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2006.86.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Bigano

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton

    (Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Hamburg University, Vrije Universiteit and Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.86
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2006-086.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    2. Richard Tol, 2007. "The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 741-753, June.
    3. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    4. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July.
    5. Coenen, Mieke & van Eekeren, Lobke, 2001. "Demand for domestic tourism by Swedish households," Umeå Economic Studies 578, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    7. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
    8. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
    10. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    11. Gossling, Stefan, 1999. "Ecotourism: a means to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem functions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-320, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008. "Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
    3. P. Michael Link & C. Ivie Ramos & Uwe A. Schneider & Erwin Schmid & J. Balkovic & R. Skalsky, 2008. "The interdependencies between food and biofuel production in European agriculture - an application of EUFASOM," Working Papers FNU-165, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2008.
    4. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
    5. Andrea Bigano & Alessandra Goria & Jacqueline Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism," Working Papers 2005.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Christine Schleupner & P. Michael Link, 2008. "Eiderstedt im Spannungsfeld zwischen Naturschutz- und Agrarpolitik - Entwicklung eines methodischen Ansatzes für ein nachhaltiges Ressourcenmanagement," Working Papers FNU-168, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2008.
    7. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    8. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean," Working Papers FNU-157, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    9. Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello, 2007. "Estimating a Climate Change Damage Function through General Equilibrium Modeling," Working Papers 2007_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    10. Ghislain Dubois & Jean-Paul Ceron & Stefan Gössling & C. Michael Hall, 2016. "Weather preferences of French tourists: lessons for climate change impact assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 339-351, May.
    11. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2012. "Climate Change, Tourism and Water Resources in the Mediterranean:a General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
    13. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 507-513, November.
    14. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Mattia Cai & Roberto Ferrise & Marco Moriondo & Paulo A.L.D. Nunes & Marco Bindi, 2011. "Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable?," Working Papers 2011.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maten A. Lau, 2004. "The Role Of Climate Information In Tourist Destination Choice Decision-Making," Working Papers FNU-56, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    18. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "The impact of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on international travel and carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7.
    19. Seán Lyons & Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "The Climate Preferences of Irish Tourists by Purpose of Travel," Papers WP225, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Moore, Winston & Lewis-Bynoe, Denny & Howard, Stacia, 2009. "Climate Change and Tourism Features in the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 21470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; International Tourism; Domestic Tourism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.