IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v124y2014i1p119-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume Rosselló
  • Maria Santana-Gallego

Abstract

This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2007. "The Effect of EMU on Tourism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 302-312, May.
    3. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate On Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers FNU-55, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Oct 2004.
    4. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    5. Christoph Vietze, 2012. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 121-138, February.
    6. Jean-François Brun & Céline Carrère & Patrick Guillaumont & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 13, pages 299-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    9. Angel Bujosa & Jaume Rosselló, 2013. "Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 363-375, March.
    10. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    11. Yener Kandogan, 2008. "Consistent Estimates of Regional Blocs' Trade Effects," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 301-314, May.
    12. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
    13. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Campos-Soria, Juan A., 2010. "Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 744-753.
    14. Muazu Ibrahim & Paul Alagidede, 2019. "Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth in sub-Saharan African: Does Sectoral Growth Matter?," Working Papers 171, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    15. Tol, Richard S. J. & Walsh, Sharon, 2012. "The Impact of Climate on Tourist Destination Choice," Papers WP423, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galli, Paolo & Fraga, Carla & de Sequeira Santos, Marcio Peixoto, 2016. "Gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations on foreign air travelers," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-83.
    2. Aristeidis G. Koutroulis & M. G. Grillakis & I. K. Tsanis & D. Jacob, 2018. "Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 157-171, November.
    3. Cabrer Borrás, Bernanrdi & Rico Belda, Paz & Sancho Pérez, Amparo, 2016. "Los gastos públicos de promoción de los destinos y la demanda turística interior en España/Public Promotional Spending and Domestic Tourism Demand in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 573-596, Agosto.
    4. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Santana, María, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-46.
    5. Saranjam Baig & Amjad Ali Khan & Aftab Ahmed Khan, 2021. "A time series analysis of causality between tourist arrivals and climatic effects for nature-based tourism destinations: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5035-5057, April.
    6. Santana-Gallego, María & Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2016. "International trade and tourism flows: An extension of the gravity model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1026-1033.
    7. Salvador Barrios & J. Ibañez, 2015. "Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 645-660, October.
    8. Jaume Rosselló-Nadal & Jianan HE, 2020. "Tourist arrivals versus tourist expenditures in modelling tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1311-1326, December.
    9. Weiwei Zhang & Lingling Jiang, 2021. "Effects of High-Speed Rail on Sustainable Development of Urban Tourism: Evidence from Discrete Choice Model of Chinese Tourists’ Preference for City Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    2. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Andrea Saayman & Paolo Figini & Silvio Cassella, 2016. "The influence of formal trade agreements and informal economic cooperation on international tourism flows," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1274-1300, December.
    4. Johan Fourie & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2015. "Religion, Religious Diversity and Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 51-64, February.
    5. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
    6. Fourie, Johan & Santana-Gallego, María, 2011. "The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1370.
    7. Das, Satya P. & Sant’Anna, Vinicios P., 2023. "Determinants of bilateral trade in manufacturing and services: A unified approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Santana, María, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-46.
    9. Shehu U.R. Aliyu & Sani Bawa, 2015. "Gravity model by panel data approach: empirical evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 42-57.
    10. Vincent Dropsy & Christian Montet & Bernard Poirine, 2020. "Tourism, insularity, and remoteness: A gravity-based approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(5), pages 792-808, August.
    11. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Shahbaz Nasir & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2016. "Information and Communication Technology-Enabled Modern Services Export Performances of Asian Economies," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, March.
    13. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    14. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Emma Galli & Ilde Rizzo & Carla Scaglioni, 2020. "Is transparency spatially determined? An empirical test for Italian municipalities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(58), pages 6372-6385, December.
    16. Shahriar Kabir & Ruhul Salim, 2016. "Can A Common Currency Induce Intra-Regional Trade? The Southeast Asian Perspective," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 218-234, November.
    17. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    18. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10143 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Shahriar Kabir & Harry Bloch & Ruhul A Salim, 2018. "Global Financial Crisis And Southeast Asian Trade Performance: Empirical Evidence," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 114-144, July.
    21. Ambetsa Wycliffe Oparanya & Kenneth P. Mdadila & Longinus K. Rutasitara, 2019. "The Determinant of Bilateral Trade in the East African Community: Application of the Gravity Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:119-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.