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Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios

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  • Jaume Rosselló
  • Maria Santana-Gallego

Abstract

This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3
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    2. Aristeidis G. Koutroulis & M. G. Grillakis & I. K. Tsanis & D. Jacob, 2018. "Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 157-171, November.
    3. Cabrer Borrás, Bernanrdi & Rico Belda, Paz & Sancho Pérez, Amparo, 2016. "Los gastos públicos de promoción de los destinos y la demanda turística interior en España/Public Promotional Spending and Domestic Tourism Demand in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 573-596, Agosto.
    4. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Santana, María, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-46.
    5. Saranjam Baig & Amjad Ali Khan & Aftab Ahmed Khan, 2021. "A time series analysis of causality between tourist arrivals and climatic effects for nature-based tourism destinations: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5035-5057, April.
    6. Santana-Gallego, María & Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2016. "International trade and tourism flows: An extension of the gravity model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1026-1033.
    7. Salvador Barrios & J. Ibañez, 2015. "Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 645-660, October.
    8. Jaume Rosselló-Nadal & Jianan HE, 2020. "Tourist arrivals versus tourist expenditures in modelling tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1311-1326, December.
    9. Weiwei Zhang & Lingling Jiang, 2021. "Effects of High-Speed Rail on Sustainable Development of Urban Tourism: Evidence from Discrete Choice Model of Chinese Tourists’ Preference for City Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-19, September.

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