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Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach

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  • Kyophilavong, Phouphet
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Salah Uddin, Gazi

Abstract

This study aims to test the existence of J-curve phenomenon in Laos’s economy using quarterly data over the period of 1993-2010. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine short run as well as long run impact of real depreciation of Lao kip on Lao trade balance. The empirical results suggest that there is J-curve effect in case of Laos. The impact of real depreciation of the Lao kip on Lao trade balance is insignificant in long run. In short-run, real depreciation has inverse impact on Lao’s trade balance. The long-run trade balance is determined by domestic income.

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  • Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2013. "Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 49052, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49052
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    6. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Charles Harvie & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2019. "Money Demand in a Dollarized Economy: Evidence from Laos PDR," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, Winter/Sp.
    7. Sayeeda Bano & Gazi Hassan, 2018. "An Empirical Examination of the J-Curve: New Zealand's Bilateral Trade with Selected Countries," Working Papers in Economics 18/05, University of Waikato.
    8. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    9. Junaid Masih & Dongsheng Liu & Javed Pervaiz, 2018. "The Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Chinese Trade Balance: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 35-47, February.
    10. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Ahmed, Habib & Husam Helmi, Mohamad, 2023. "Determinants of financial stability and risk transmission in dual financial system: Evidence from the COVID pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Yannick Bineau, 2016. "Real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Cambodia: A panel investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 895-900.
    12. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Tony I. Nwanji & Abiola Asaleye & Victor Ahmed, 2016. "Economic growth, financial development and trade openness in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1258810-125, December.
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    14. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    15. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    16. Gobbi, Lucio & Lucarelli, Stefano, 2022. "Pound Sterling depreciation and the UK's trade balance versus the USA's: Industry-level estimates," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 206-220.
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    Keywords

    J-curve; ARDL approach; Laos;
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    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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