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J-curve disparity between the goods sector and the services sector: evidence from Australia

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  • Albert Wijeweera
  • Brian Dollery

Abstract

The J-curve effect phenomenon suggests that the currency devaluation would worsen the trade balance in the short run, but improve it in the long run. This article uses quarterly Australian data over the period 1988 to 2011 to examine whether J-curve effects are different between the two main components of the trade account: the goods sector and the services sector. Using the bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling, we find some evidence to support the J-curve phenomenon, but the impact of real exchange rate on the trade account seems complex. While the services sector displays a J-curve effect, the goods sector response is quite the opposite: it has a positive response in the short run, but a weak negative response in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Wijeweera & Brian Dollery, 2013. "J-curve disparity between the goods sector and the services sector: evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 452-456, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:5:p:452-456
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.707765
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    Cited by:

    1. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Somchith Souksavath & Sengchanh Chanthasene, 2018. "Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 590-603, June.
    2. Sayeeda Bano & Gazi Hassan, 2018. "An Empirical Examination of the J-Curve: New Zealand's Bilateral Trade with Selected Countries," Working Papers in Economics 18/05, University of Waikato.
    3. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    4. Prakash, Kushneel & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2016. "Does devaluation improve trade balance in small island economies? The case of Fiji," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 382-393.
    5. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and the Dynamics of Services Trade Balance in the UK: A Linear and Non-linear ARDL Analysis," MPRA Paper 106703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 106701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. SOLOMON PRINCE Nathaniel, 2020. "Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact On Trade Balance? Fresh Insights From Combined Cointegration," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 259-269, April.
    8. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2023. "The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 199-219, May.
    9. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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