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Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962

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  • David Matesanz
  • Guadalupe Fugarolas

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for nonstationary data and vector error correction models, this article examines the determinants of trade balance (TB) for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years taking into account that the short-run impacts of currency depreciation on the TB behaviour may differ from the long-run effects. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among TB, real exchange rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different RER management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is checked and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the TB not finding support for a J-curve pattern in the short-run.

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  • David Matesanz & Guadalupe Fugarolas, 2009. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2571-2582.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:20:p:2571-2582
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701222660
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    Cited by:

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    2. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gundogdu, 2015. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition: the Turkish case (1998–2013)," Discussion Papers 2015/01, Yasar University, Department of Economics.
    3. Luis Sastre, 2018. "Marshall-Lerner Condition and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 29-38, August.
    4. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    5. Rosdiana Sijabat, 2022. "The Association of Economic Growth, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Capital Formation in Indonesia: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Luis Satre Jiménez, 2010. "Economías abiertas y condición de Marshall-Lerner," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-8, November.
    7. Muhammad Omer & Junaid Kamal & Jakob Haan, 2023. "Does an exchange rate depreciation improve the trade balance of Pakistan?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 163-185, February.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    9. Razak, Najwa & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112447, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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