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Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Jehanzeb Cheema

    (The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

Abstract

Previous studies that investigated the short-run (J-curve) and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of Pakistan used aggregate trade data between Pakistan and the rest of the world and provided no evidence of any significant impact. We wonder whether lack of the relation is due to aggregation bias. In this paper, therefore, we go one step further by employing disaggregated data at bilateral level between Pakistan and her 13 major trading partners to determine if we can discover partners whose trade balances react to changes in the real bilateral exchange rate. The results from bounds testing approach are still inconclusive and show that only in half of the cases the real bilateral exchange rate plays a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:34:y:2009:i:1:p:19-41
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    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 29-51, March.
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    6. . Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2017. "On Using Exchange Rate for Promoting Exports," Working Papers id:12176, eSocialSciences.
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    9. Murad, S. M. Woahid, 2012. "Bilateral Export and Import Demand Functions of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(1), pages 43-60, March.
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    13. SOLOMON PRINCE Nathaniel, 2020. "Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact On Trade Balance? Fresh Insights From Combined Cointegration," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 259-269, April.
    14. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Atif Ali Jaffri & Faisal Abbas & Azad Haider, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 158-183, September.
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    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    19. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.
    20. Muzaffar Ali & Raheela Khatoon & Muhammad Munwar Hayat & Iqbal Javed, 2021. "Trade determinants between Pakistan and United Arab Emirate: A time series analysis," Journal of Social Sciences Advancement, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 25-29.
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    22. Mahmood, Haider & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Ahmed, Nawaz, 2017. "Impact of Devaluation on Industrial Exports in Saudi Arabia: J-Curve Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 109455, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral J-Curve; Bounds Testing; Cointegration; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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