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The Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Chinese Trade Balance: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach

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  • Junaid Masih
  • Dongsheng Liu
  • Javed Pervaiz

Abstract

This study inspects the fundamental relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance in China. The outcome shows that the real effective exchange rate and trade balance in China has no causal relationship. Though, seeing structural changes in two series, we got the result those both long-run and short-run associations using full-sample data are wobbly, which proposes that the full-sample causation tests can¡¯t be relied upon. Then, using time-varying rolling window method to reexamine the dynamic fundamental relationship. The results show that real effective exchange rate has both negative and positive impacts on the trade balance in several sub-periods, and in turn, trade balance has same impact on real effective exchange rate for China. These findings provide no support for the existence of J-curve effect and Marshall-Lerner Condition in case of China. This study shows that it is impossible to resolve China¡¯s trade deficit, depending only on the movement of RMB¡¯s exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Junaid Masih & Dongsheng Liu & Javed Pervaiz, 2018. "The Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Chinese Trade Balance: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 35-47, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:35-47
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    Cited by:

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    2. Loredana Jitaru & Lorena Florentina Dumitrașciuc, 2019. "The Influence of the Depreciation of China's Domestic Currency on Trade Relations with the EU," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 33-38, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; trade balance; rolling window; bootstrap; time-varying causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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