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The silence that precedes hypocrisy: a formal model of the spiral of silence theory

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  • Blanco, Iván

Abstract

This paper exposes a formal model of the spiral of silence theory. It is based on game theoy. The game consists on three players: players 1 and two have two strategies, to speak (s) or not (~s); the third player is Nature, which decides whether players 1 and 2 agree in their opinion or not. If players 1, 2 speak and agree, they receive a payoff b. If they speak and disagree, they receive a payoff -c, for b, c > 0. The Nash equilibrium is in mixed strategies and each player chooses the profile $(s, c(b + c)^{-1}; ~s, 1-c(b + c)^{-1}$. To analyse what happens when there are many players and interactions, I have run some simulations where players can update their beliefs about the opinion climate. The time when the spiral of silence process begins decays exponentially with the initial beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco, Iván, 2005. "The silence that precedes hypocrisy: a formal model of the spiral of silence theory," MPRA Paper 45452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45452
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 1-2.
    2. Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron & Józef Sznajd, 2000. "Opinion Evolution In Closed Community," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(06), pages 1157-1165.
    3. Gérard Weisbuch & Guillaume Deffuant & Frederic Amblard & Jean Pierre Nadal, 2001. "Interacting Agents and Continuous Opinions Dynamics," Working Papers 01-11-072, Santa Fe Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public opinion; opinion dynamics; spiral of silence; hidden vote; social simulation; agent-based modeling; game theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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