Predictive Performance of Conditional Extreme Value Theory and Conventional Methods in Value at Risk Estimation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 2000.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management,"
Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 30-35, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005.
"A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2007.
"Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management,"
NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 513-544,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Practical volatility and correlation modeling for financial market risk management," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mark Carey & René M. Stulz, 2007.
"The Risks of Financial Institutions,"
NBER Books,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number care06-1, January.
- Carey, Mark & Stulz, Rene M., 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," Working Paper Series 2005-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "(Understanding, Optimizing, Using and Forecasting) Realized Volatility and Correlation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-061, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman, 2003. "High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 337-356, October.
- Gita Persand & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Volatility forecasting for risk management," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-22.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A., 2005. "Estimation of Value-at-Risk by extreme value and conventional methods: a comparative evaluation of their predictive performance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 209-228, July.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Francis X. Diebold,, 2003.
"Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2003/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000.
"How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-080, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," NBER Working Papers 6844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
- Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Nguyen, Cuong C. & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2012. "Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 758-773.
- Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Nguyen, Cuong C., 2012. "Diversification evidence from international equity markets using extreme values and stochastic copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 622-646.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
- Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005.
"Volatility Forecasting,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013.
"Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220,
Elsevier.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," CREATES Research Papers 2011-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 18084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Long H. Vo, 2017. "Estimating Financial Volatility with High-Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(2), pages 84-114, October.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Potamia, Artemis, 2017.
"Multiple-days-ahead value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting for stock indices, commodities and exchange rates: Inter-day versus intra-day data,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 176-190.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Potamia, Artemis, 2016. "Multiple-days-ahead value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting for stock indices, commodities and exchange rates: inter-day versus intra-day data," MPRA Paper 74670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Perry Sadorsky & Michael D. McKenzie, 2008. "Power transformation models and volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 587-606.
- Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.
- Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.
- Cotter, John, 2007.
"Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
- Cotter, John, 2004. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," MPRA Paper 3483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John Cotter, 2011. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," Papers 1103.5649, arXiv.org.
- John Cotter, 2011. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," Working Papers 200419, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Min Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Wei‐Chong Choo, 2021. "An empirical study on the role of trading volume and data frequency in volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 792-816, August.
- N. Antonakakis & J. Darby, 2013.
"Forecasting volatility in developing countries' nominal exchange returns,"
Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 1675-1691, November.
- Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Darby, Julia, 2012. "Forecasting Volatility in Developing Countries' Nominal Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables and Focused Selection Criteria," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013.
"Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall using Fractionally Integrated Models of Conditional Volatility: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 80433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Min Liu & Wei‐Chong Choo & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2023. "Trading volume and realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the China stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 76-100, January.
- Raunig, Burkhard, 2006. "The longer-horizon predictability of German stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 363-372.
- Antonio Díaz & Gonzalo García-Donato & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2017. "Risk quantification in turmoil markets," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(3), pages 202-224, August.
- Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012.
"Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 627-639.
- Benavides Guillermo & Capistrán Carlos, 2009. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: The Superior Performance of Conditional Combinations of Time Series and Option Implied Forecasts," Working Papers 2009-01, Banco de México.
- Wei, Yu & Chen, Wang & Lin, Yu, 2013. "Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2163-2174.
- Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007.
"A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February.
- Angelidis, Timotheos & Benos, Alexandros & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2007. "A Robust VaR Model under Different Time Periods and Weighting Schemes," MPRA Paper 80466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Financial Risk management; Value-at-Risk; Extreme Value Theory; Conditional EVT; Backtesting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- G0 - Financial Economics - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2007-07-13 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-07-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-RMG-2007-07-13 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.