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The causal relationship between patent growth and growth of GDP with quarterly data in the G7 countries: cointegration, ARDL and error correction models

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  • Josheski, Dushko
  • Koteski, Cane

Abstract

This empirical study investigates the dynamic link between patent growth and GDP growth in G7 economies. ARDL model showed that there exist positive relationship in long run between quarterly growth of patents and quarterly GDP growth. The error correction term suggests that 20,6 percent of the adjustment back to long run equilibrium of industrial production in G7 countries is corrected by 20,6% a year, following a shock like the one in 1974 , which in our study is controlled by a dummy variable D74. In the short run however at one or two lags there exist negative relationship between quarterly patents growth and quarterly growth of GDP. Johansen’s procedure for cointegration showed that long run multipliers are positive between the patent growth and GDP growth in G7 economies. Granger causality test showed that patent growth Granger cause GDP growth in G7 countries. Unrestricted VAR showed that there exists positive relationship between patent growth and GDP growth at two or three lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "The causal relationship between patent growth and growth of GDP with quarterly data in the G7 countries: cointegration, ARDL and error correction models," MPRA Paper 33153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "R&D, Patents, and Productivity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril84-1.
    2. Oluwole Owoye, 1995. "The causal relationship between taxes and expenditures in the G7 countries: cointegration and error-correction models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 19-22.
    3. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Market Value, R&D, and Patents," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 249-252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Josh Lerner, 2009. "The Empirical Impact of Intellectual Property Rights on Innovation: Puzzles and Clues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 343-348, May.
    5. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Introduction to "R & D, Patents, and Productivity"," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 1-20, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. John Bound & Clint Cummins & Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe, 1984. "Who Does R&D and Who Patents?," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 21-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:pri:cepsud:197vichyanond is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jade Vichyanond, 2009. "Intellectual Property Protection and Patterns of Trade," Working Papers 1201, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    9. Yi Qian, 2007. "Do National Patent Laws Stimulate Domestic Innovation in a Global Patenting Environment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Pharmaceutical Patent Protection, 1978-2002," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 436-453, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Özgür ERSİN & Ayfer USTABAŞ & Tuğçe ACAR, 2022. "The Nonlinear Effects of High Technology Exports, R&D and Patents on Economic Growth: A Panel Threshold Approach to 35 OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 26-44, April.
    2. Su, Hsin-Ning & Moaniba, Igam M., 2017. "Does innovation respond to climate change? Empirical evidence from patents and greenhouse gas emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 49-62.
    3. Janusz Myszczyszyn, 2020. "The Long-run Relationships between Number of Patents and Economic Growth," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 548-563.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; ARDL; Error correction models; Johasens’s procedure; Patent growth; GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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