IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2022i1p26-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nonlinear Effects of High Technology Exports, R&D and Patents on Economic Growth: A Panel Threshold Approach to 35 OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Özgür ERSİN

    (Faculty of Econ. and Admin. Sci., Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey, Email: ozgurersin@beykent.edu.tr. Counselor Committee Member, Econ. and Fin. App. and Res. Center, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey.)

  • Ayfer USTABAŞ

    (Beykent University, Dept. of International Trade and Finance, Istanbul, Turkey.)

  • Tuğçe ACAR

    (Beykent University, Dept. of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey.)

Abstract

The paper aims at the investigation of the economic growth and R&D thresholds in addition to the evaluation of nonlinear effects of R&D, patents and high technology product exports on economic growth. Within this respective, a panel consisting of 35 OECD member and other countries is analysed with dynamic panel threshold regressions and bootstrap threshold testing methodologies for the 1992–2016 period. The results reveal significant threshold effects of the economic growth rates closely followed by the threshold effects dominated by the share of R&D in the GDP. The empirical findings have significant contributions: i. the impacts of high technology exports are asymmetric and regime-dependent, in addition, positive in both regimes, ii. R&D expenditures have positive effects not only in the high R&D/GDP but also in relatively low R&D/GDP and growth regimes, iii. the R&D in GDP threshold parameter is estimated as close to 0.7% and is compared to the literature. The overall findings coincide with the endogenous growth literature, but with an interesting distinction regarding the positive impacts even at low R&D regimes. The policy suggestions favor the encouragement of R&D and its positive effects on economic growth even for countries that cannot achieve a theoretical 3% R&D in GDP threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Özgür ERSİN & Ayfer USTABAŞ & Tuğçe ACAR, 2022. "The Nonlinear Effects of High Technology Exports, R&D and Patents on Economic Growth: A Panel Threshold Approach to 35 OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 26-44, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2022:i:1:p:26-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_2022/rjef1_2022p26-44.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Yanrui Wu, 2010. "Innovation and Economic Growth in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-1175, September.
    7. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    8. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Productivity, R&D, and Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970s," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 82-99, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "The causal relationship between patent growth and growth of GDP with quarterly data in the G7 countries: cointegration, ARDL and error correction models," MPRA Paper 33153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-374, June.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    12. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-472, June.
    13. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    14. Aydin, Celil & Esen, Ömer, 2018. "Does the level of energy intensity matter in the effect of energy consumption on the growth of transition economies? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 185-195.
    15. Zoltán J. Ács & Mark Sanders, 2015. "Patents, knowledge spillovers, and entrepreneurship," Chapters, in: Global Entrepreneurship, Institutions and Incentives, chapter 11, pages 195-212, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Sterlacchini, Alessandro, 2008. "R&D, higher education and regional growth: Uneven linkages among European regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6-7), pages 1096-1107, July.
    17. Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2020. "Technological Revolutions, Structural Change & Catching-Up," Working Papers on Innovation Studies 20200423, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    18. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    19. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    20. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Karavias, Yiannis, 2016. "The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 65-68.
    21. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Mahjus Ekananda & Dion Jogi Parlinggoman, 2017. "The Role of High-Tech Exports and of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) on Economic Growth," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 194-212.
    23. Lee, Jim, 2011. "Export specialization and economic growth around the world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-63, March.
    24. M. Aristizabal-Ramirez & G. Canavire-Bacarreza & F. Rios-Avila, 2015. "Revisiting the effects of innovation on growth: a threshold analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1474-1479, December.
    25. Chang-Yang Lee, 2012. "Learning-by-doing in R&D, knowledge threshold, and technological divide," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 109-132, January.
    26. Elena PELINESCU & Carmen PAUNA & Corina SAMAN & Tiberiu DIACONESCU, 2019. "Human Capital, Innovation and Economic Growth in the EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 160-173, December.
    27. Angus C. Chu & Zonglai Kou & Xilin Wang, 2020. "Effects of patents on the transition from stagnation to growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 395-411, April.
    28. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    29. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/577 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203-1203, December.
    31. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-570, August.
    32. Mark Crosby, 2000. "Patents, Innovation and Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(234), pages 255-262, September.
    33. Ivus, Olena, 2010. "Do stronger patent rights raise high-tech exports to the developing world?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 38-47, May.
    34. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lifeng Chen & Fuxuan Guo & Lingyan Huang, 2023. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Green Innovation: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Cristina CRISTE & Ciel BOVARY (MAN) & Nicoleta-Claudia MOLDOVAN & Raluca RĂCĂTĂIAN & Oana-Ramona LOBONȚ, 2024. "Eu Capacity To Bolster And Stimulate Research And Innovation: Who Is The Leader In Development?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(2), pages 60-77, August.
    3. N. V. Suvorov & Yu. V. Beletsky & S. V. Treshchina, 2024. "Tools and Results of the Study of the Relationship between Production Dynamics and the Dynamics of Costs for Technological Innovation in the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(6), pages 778-787, December.
    4. Kang Pan & Rong Liu & Xiaowei Chen & Ying Huang, 2023. "How Does Industrial Agglomeration Affect Exports? Evidence from Chinese Province-Industry Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-18, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fagerberg, Jan & Srholec, Martin & Verspagen, Bart, 2010. "Innovation and Economic Development," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 833-872, Elsevier.
    2. Michael Peneder & Karl Aiginger & Gernot Hutschenreiter & Markus Marterbauer, 2001. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 20668, January.
    3. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Evolutionary And New Growth Theories. Are They Converging?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 585-627, July.
    4. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    5. Johanna Vogel, 2015. "The two faces of R&D and human capital: Evidence from Western European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 525-551, August.
    6. Goñi, Edwin & Maloney, William F., 2017. "Why don’t poor countries do R&D? Varying rates of factor returns across the development process," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 126-147.
    7. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    8. Edwin Goni & William F. Maloney, 2014. "Why don’t Poor Countries do R&D?," Documentos CEDE 11947, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Alexa, Diana & Jude, Cristina & Litan, Cristian, 2014. "Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries? A dynamic panel estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 108-119.
    10. Maurseth, Per Botolf, 2001. "Convergence, geography and technology," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-276, September.
    11. Fagerberg, Jan & Srholec, Martin, 2008. "National innovation systems, capabilities and economic development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1417-1435, October.
    12. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    13. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    14. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    15. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    16. Mirajul Haq & Muhammad Luqman, 2014. "The contribution of international trade to economic growth through human capital accumulation: Evidence from nine Asian countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Fagerberg, Jan & Srholec, Martin & Knell, Mark, 2007. "The Competitiveness of Nations: Why Some Countries Prosper While Others Fall Behind," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1595-1620, October.
    18. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    19. Feenstra, Robert C., 1996. "Trade and uneven growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 229-256, April.
    20. Manzoor Ahmad & Jianghuai Zheng, 2023. "The Cyclical and Nonlinear Impact of R&D and Innovation Activities on Economic Growth in OECD Economies: a New Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 544-593, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; high technology exports; economic growth in open economies; threshold regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2022:i:1:p:26-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.