IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/104425.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes

Author

Listed:
  • Kislev, Mickey M.
  • Kislev, Shira

Abstract

The study analyzes the diffusion of electronic cigarettes as an innovation, as well as how industry, society, and the individual affect its market dynamics. The study is based on five surveys conducted during the years 2017−2019, and including participants of all ages (age 12 to 80 and beyond). The article describes indicators for evaluating the sustainability of a really-new product like electronic cigarettes, following the market trajectory of this product as it sets its dominant design and shapes the use-system for the product type from now onward. This process has two phases: trial and adoption. The probability of each nicotine product type’s adoption is different, depending on the prevalence of trials of that product among the population. The results of e-cigarette trials and additional indicators reveal the point (critical mass-point) where social influence outweighs rational evaluation by the individual regarding nicotine products. By using triers’ prevalence as the indicator for measuring an entry of really-new product into the market, the authors could identify the sustainability of that really-new product at a much early phase. Therefore, the prevalence of triers can be used as a predictor for the diffusion rate of an innovative product in a certain population and should be measured. The authors also propose a regression model that estimates the prevalence of triers based on the extent of users in the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Kislev, Mickey M. & Kislev, Shira, 2020. "The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes," MPRA Paper 104425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104425
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104425/1/MPRA_paper_104425.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiran Karande & Altaf Merchant & K. Sivakumar, 2011. "Erratum to: Relationships among time orientation, consumer innovativeness, and innovative behavior: the moderating role of product characteristics," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 1(2), pages 99-116, June.
    2. Midgley, David F & Dowling, Grahame R, 1978. "Innovativeness: The Concept and Its Measurement," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 4(4), pages 229-242, March.
    3. Rabik Ar Chatterjee & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1990. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1057-1079, September.
    4. Kamakura, Wagner A & Novak, Thomas P, 1992. "Value-System Segmentation: Exploring the Meaning of LOV," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 19(1), pages 119-132, June.
    5. Clark, Kim B., 1985. "The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 235-251, October.
    6. L. Dean Hiebert, 1974. "Risk, Learning, and the Adoption of Fertilizer Responsive Seed Varieties," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(4), pages 764-768.
    7. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    8. Didier Nourrisson, 1988. "Tabagisme et antitabagisme en France au XIXe siècle," Histoire, économie & société, Programme National Persée, vol. 7(4), pages 535-547.
    9. Hannah, Leslie, 2006. "The Whig Fable of American Tobacco, 1895–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 42-73, March.
    10. Frank W. Geels, 2005. "Technological Transitions and System Innovations," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3576.
    11. Bartels, Jos & Reinders, Machiel J., 2011. "Consumer innovativeness and its correlates: A propositional inventory for future research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 601-609, June.
    12. Eric W. Zitzewitz, 2003. "Competition and Long–run Productivity Growth in the UK and US Tobacco Industries, 1879–1939," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-33, March.
    13. Polli, Rolando & Cook, Victor, 1969. "Validity of the Product Life Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(4), pages 385-400, October.
    14. Moreau, C Page & Markman, Arthur B & Lehmann, Donald R, 2001. ""What Is It?" Categorization Flexibility and Consumers' Responses to Really New Products," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 489-498, March.
    15. Christensen, Clayton M. & Rosenbloom, Richard S., 1995. "Explaining the attacker's advantage: Technological paradigms, organizational dynamics, and the value network," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, March.
    16. Kelvin Lancaster, 1990. "The Economics of Product Variety: A Survey," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 189-206.
    17. Mittelstaedt, Robert A, et al, 1976. "Optimal Stimulation Level and the Adoption Decision Process," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 3(2), pages 84-94, Se.
    18. Walsh, Cliff, 1987. "Individual Irrationality and Public Policy: In Search of Merit/Demerit Policies," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 103-134, April.
    19. Nina Shapiro, 1986. "Innovation, New Industries and New Firms," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 27-43, Jan-Mar.
    20. Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E M & Gielens, Katrijn, 2003. "Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 368-384, December.
    21. Stefan Mann & Miriam Gairing, 2012. "Does Libertarian Paternalism Reconcile Merit Goods Theory with Mainstream Economics?," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2-3), pages 206-219, July.
    22. Ostlund, Lyman E, 1974. "Perceived Innovation Attributes as Predictors of Innovativeness," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 1(2), pages 23-29, Se.
    23. Dan Horsky & Leonard S. Simon, 1983. "Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17.
    24. Dahlin, Kristina B. & Behrens, Dean M., 2005. "When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 717-737, June.
    25. Enis, Ben M. & La Garce, Raymond & Prell, Arthur E., 1977. "Extending the product life cycle," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 46-56, June.
    26. Kristina Dahlin & Deans M. Behrens, 2005. "When is an invention really radical? Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Post-Print hal-00480416, HAL.
    27. Crawford, C. Merle, 1972. "Strategies for new product development," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 49-58, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mickey M. Kislev & Shira Kislev, 2020. "The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes," International Journal of Marketing Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-63, December.
    2. B. Vandecasteele & M. Geuens, 2008. "Motivated Consumer Innovativeness: Concept and Measurement," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/532, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Magistretti, Stefano & Dell'Era, Claudio & Verganti, Roberto, 2020. "Searching for the right application: A technology development review and research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Yoon, Jungsub & Lee, Jeong-Dong & Hwang, Seogwon, 2022. "Episodic change: A new approach to identifying industrial transition," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Heidenreich, Sven & Kraemer, Tobias, 2015. "Passive innovation resistance: The curse of innovation? Investigating consequences for innovative consumer behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 134-151.
    6. Grashof, Nils, 2020. "Putting the watering can away Towards a targeted (problem-oriented) cluster policy framework," Papers in Innovation Studies 2020/4, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    7. Santamaría Sánchez, Luis, 2005. "Novelty of product innovation : the role of different networks," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb056516, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    8. Magdalena Klimczuk-Kochanska, 2016. "The Role of the Soft Innovation in the Research of Low-Tech Sectors on the Example of Food Industry (Rola innowacji miekkich w badaniach innowacyjnosci przedsiebiorstw z sektorow niskotechnologicznych," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(22), pages 23-32.
    9. Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
    10. Tellis, Gerard J. & Chandrasekaran, Deepa, 2010. "Extent and impact of response biases in cross-national survey research," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 329-341.
    11. Natalya Vinokurova & Rahul Kapoor, 2020. "Converting inventions into innovations in large firms: How inventors at Xerox navigated the innovation process to commercialize their ideas," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(13), pages 2372-2399, December.
    12. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
    13. Hossein Nasiri Zarandi & Fereshteh Lotfizadeh, 2016. "The Influence of Cognitive Innovativeness on the Behavior and Style of Consumer Adoption: Implications for Electronic-Banking Service Adoption," International Journal of Marketing Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 90-103, October.
    14. Mary Tripsas, 2008. "Customer preference discontinuities: a trigger for radical technological change," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2-3), pages 79-97.
    15. Klimczuk-Kochańska, Magdalena, 2016. "Rola innowacji miękkich w badaniach innowacyjności przedsiębiorstw z sektorów niskotechnologicznych na przykładzie sektora spożywczego [The Role of the Soft Innovation in the Research of Low-Tech S," MPRA Paper 84757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Marcati, Alberto & Guido, Gianluigi & Peluso, Alessandro M., 2008. "The role of SME entrepreneurs' innovativeness and personality in the adoption of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1579-1590, October.
    17. Heather Berry, 2018. "The Influence of Multiple Knowledge Networks on Innovation in Foreign Operations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 855-872, October.
    18. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J., 2010. "Understanding investors' decisions to purchase innovative products: Drivers of adoption timing and range," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 342-355.
    19. Nils Grashof, 2020. "Spill over or Spill out? - A multilevel analysis of the cluster and firm performance relationship," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2013, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2020.
    20. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demerit good; electronic cigarette; innovation; diffusion; nicotine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.