IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pab/wpaper/18.01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Approaches to the Study of Long Term Non-employment Duration in Italy, Germany and Spain

Author

Listed:
  • J. Ignacio García-Pérez

    (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Bruno Contini

    (Università di Torino & Collegio C. Alberto)

  • Toralf Pusch

    (Hans Böckler Stiftung, Düsseldorf)

  • Roberto Quaranta

    (Collegio C. Alberto)

Abstract

This study proposes a new approach to the analysis of non-employment and its duration in Germany, Italy and Spain using administrative longitudinal databases. Non-employment includes the discouraged unemployed not entitled to draw unemployment benefits and the long-term inactive. Many of the non-employed individuals will never return to the official labour market. We estimate the magnitude and duration of non-employment, applying the survival methodology developed in recent years to deal with ‘workforce disposal’. Long-term non-employment (LTNE) may lead to dramatic changes in individual lifestyles, family and childbearing projects, levels of poverty and welfare at large.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Bruno Contini & Toralf Pusch & Roberto Quaranta, 2018. "New Approaches to the Study of Long Term Non-employment Duration in Italy, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 18.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:18.01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ1801.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. J Ignacio García-Pérez & Ioana Marinescu & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Can Fixed-term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1693-1730.
    3. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    4. Adriana Kugler & Juan F. Jimeno & Virginia Hernanz, "undated". "Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labor Market Reforms," Working Papers 2003-14, FEDEA.
    5. John T. Addison & Mário Centeno & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped‐Down Job Search Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 46-59, January.
    6. Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2009. "Unemployment Insurance in Europe: Unemployment Duration and Subsequent Employment Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1225-1260, December.
    7. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Berg & Jan C. Ours, 2005. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 602-630, July.
    8. Hazans, Mihails, 2011. "Informal Workers across Europe: Evidence from 30 Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 5871, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Katharine G. Abraham & John Haltiwanger & Kristin Sandusky & James R. Spletzer, 2019. "The Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(2), pages 266-299, March.
    10. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    11. Elisa Grand & Roberto Quaranta, 2011. "Completamento delle carriere lavorative WHIP con i dati del Casellario degli Attivi INPS," LABORatorio R. Revelli Whip Technical Reports 03, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    12. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    13. Torelli, Nicola & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "Youth unemployment duration from the Italian labour force survey: Accuracy issues and modelling attempts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 407-415, March.
    14. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    15. Contini, Bruno & Grand, Elisa, 2014. "Estimating Workforce Disposal in the Italian Labour Market," IZA Policy Papers 79, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Katharine G. Abraham & Kristin Sandusky & John Haltiwanger & James R. Spletzer, 2016. "The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 16-40, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    18. Elisa Grand & Roberto Quaranta, 2014. "Contributions and Labour Cost Data from Individual Social Security Administrative Data," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 137-166.
    19. Antoni, Manfred & Ganzer, Andreas & Vom Berge, Philipp, 2016. "Sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB) 1975-2014," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 201604_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Bruno Contini & Ambra Poggi, 2012. "Employability of Young Italian Men after a Jobless Period, 1989–98," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 26(1), pages 66-89, March.
    21. Olivier Blanchard & Augustin Landier, 2001. "The Perverse Effects of Partial Labor Market Reform: Fixed Duration Contracts in France," NBER Working Papers 8219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    23. Bruno Contini & Ambra Poggi, 2006. "Employability of Young Italian Males after a Jobless Period, 1989-1998," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 48, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    24. Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Uta Sch?nberg & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2014. "From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 167-188, Winter.
    25. Mussida Chiara & Sciulli Dario, 2015. "Flexibility Policies and Re-employment Probabilities in Italy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 621-651, April.
    26. Battistin, Erich & Rettore, Enrico, 2008. "Ineligibles and eligible non-participants as a double comparison group in regression-discontinuity designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 715-730, February.
    27. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    28. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    29. Edgar L. Feige, 1979. "How Big Is the Irregular Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 5-13, November.
    30. Daniel Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1265-1306.
    31. repec:iab:iabfda:201604(en is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    33. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1994. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Wage Dispersion and Employment: Evidence from the U.K. Wages Councils," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 47(2), pages 319-329, January.
    34. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bauer Frank & Sieglen Georg, 2018. "Individuell verfestigte Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit: Dimensionen, regionale Disparitäten, Übergänge in Beschäftigung. Am Beispiel von NRW und seinen Regionen," Arbeit, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 87-107, June.
    2. Bruno Contini & Roberto Quaranta, 2019. "Is Long-Term Non-employment a Lifetime Disease?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 79-102, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Contini, Bruno & Quaranta, Roberto, 2017. "Explaining Non-Employment Magnitude and Duration: The Case of Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 10728, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Bruno Contini & Roberto Quaranta, 2019. "Is Long-Term Non-employment a Lifetime Disease?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 79-102, March.
    3. Chiara Mussida & Dario Sciulli, 2016. "The trend over time of labour market opportunities for young people in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 291-321, August.
    4. Mussida Chiara & Sciulli Dario, 2015. "Flexibility Policies and Re-employment Probabilities in Italy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 621-651, April.
    5. Seele, Stefanie & Burda, Michael, 2016. "No Role for the Hartz Reforms? Demand and Supply Factors in the German Labor Market, 1993-2014," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145650, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Contini, Bruno & Grand, Elisa, 2014. "Estimating Workforce Disposal in the Italian Labour Market," IZA Policy Papers 79, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard, 2017. "Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," NBER Working Papers 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-022 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    12. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    13. Burda Michael C. & Seele Stefanie, 2017. "Das deutsche Arbeitsmarktwunder: Eine Bilanz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 179-204, October.
    14. Lídia Farré & Francesco Fasani & Hannes Mueller, 2018. "Feeling useless: the effect of unemployment on mental health in the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, December.
    15. Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2011. "The part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 591-606, October.
    16. Liotti, Giorgio, 2020. "Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 150-162.
    17. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "Measuring the model uncertainty of shadow economy estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1069-1106, August.
    18. S. Haincourt. & M. Mogliani., 2012. "Has the 2008-2009 recession increased the structural share of unemployment in the euro area?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 25, pages 63-80, Spring.
    19. Kunze, Lars & Suppa, Nicolai, 2017. "Bowling alone or bowling at all? The effect of unemployment on social participation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 213-235.
    20. Mergele, Lukas & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Public employment services under decentralization: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    21. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
    22. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor economics; inactivity; long-term unemployment; turnover.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:18.01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publicación Digital - UPO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupoes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.