Price-, Taste-, and Convenience-Competitive Plant-Based Meat Would Not Currently Replace Meat (journal version)

Plant-based meats, like the Beyond Sausage or Impossible Burger, and cultivated meats have become a source of optimism for public health, environmental and animal welfare advocates hoping to mitigate the myriad harms of animal-based foods by replacing them with perfect alternatives. Some have proposed that these substitutes might soon replace animal-based meats based on the supposition that price, taste and convenience are the primary drivers of food choice. Thus, it is hypothesized that if a plant-based meat matches (or exceeds) its animal-based counterpart on the basis of these three criteria, consumption will largely shift from animal-based to plant-based. However, this hypothesis has received little critical attention. To fill this gap, we will review evidence testing the PTC hypothesis, including cross-sectional surveys, hypothetical discrete choice experiments, a field experiment and commercial case studies. Ultimately, given current consumer preferences, we do not find support for the PTC hypothesis. However, PBMs may still have important potential as a tool for reducing meat consumption.