Closing the EU protein gap – drivers, synergies and trade-offs

The policy and public debate on the EU protein sector requires a comprehensive approach that includes EU plant protein production and supply, while simultaneously addressing the broader challenges and opportunities of protein demand in the food and feed sectors. Taking a food systems perspective, this report assesses synergies and trade-offs between four hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios are considered both individually and in combination, and describe possible futures for EU protein supply and demand: (i) providing specific support for protein crop production; (ii) changing livestock feed practices; (iii) restructuring the livestock herd; and (iv) transitioning towards more plant-based diets. While these scenarios are exploratory and do not prejudge policy decisions, the analysis demonstrates that joint changes on both supply and demand are required to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the EU agro-food system. The modelling results indicate that jointly addressing protein supply and demand can yield substantial environmental benefits and reduce the EU's reliance on imported feed protein. An integrated strategy is also essential to support farmers and the broader food system, realising opportunities and mitigating potential adverse impacts associated with the transition to a more sustainable protein supply and demand.