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Measuring downside risk-realised semivariance

Author

Listed:
  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen

    (Dept of Mathematical Sciences, University of Aarhus)

  • Silja Kinnebrock

    (Oxford-Man Institute and Merton College, University of Oxford)

  • Neil Shephard

    (Oxford-Man Institute and Dept of Economics, Oxford University)

Abstract

We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Measuring downside risk-realised semivariance," Economics Papers 2008-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0802
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
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    5. Silja Kinnebrock & Mark Podolskij & Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, 2007. "A Note on the Central Limit Theorem for Bipower Variation of General Functions," Economics Series Working Papers 2007-FE-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Podolskij, Mark, 2004. "A central limit theorem for realised power and bipower variations of continuous semimartingales," Technical Reports 2004,51, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    7. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2249-2276, July.
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      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Mao, James C T, 1970. "Survey of Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 349-360, May.
    14. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Designing Realized Kernels to Measure the ex post Variation of Equity Prices in the Presence of Noise," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1481-1536, November.
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    18. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
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    28. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Designing Realized Kernels to Measure the ex post Variation of Equity Prices in the Presence of Noise," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1481-1536, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market frictions; Quadratic variation; Realised variance; Semimartingale; Semivariance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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