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Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk

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  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Bin Wei
  • Vivian Z. Yue
  • Egon Zakrajšek

Abstract

In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond-level sovereign spreads for dollar-denominated bonds issued by over 50 countries from 1995 to 2020 and use various indicators to measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global financial risk causes a large and persistent widening of sovereign bond spreads. These effects are strongest when measuring global risk using the excess bond premium – a measure of the risk-bearing capacity of U.S. financial intermediaries. The spillover effects of global financial risk are more pronounced for speculative-grade sovereign bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk," NBER Working Papers 29501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29501
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    Cited by:

    1. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    2. Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Romero-Chamorro, José Vicente & Ramírez-González, Mahicol Stiben, 2023. "The Global Financial Cycle and Country Risk in Emerging Markets During Stress Episodes: A Copula-CoVaR Approach," Working papers 105, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2021. "A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Dec 2022.
    5. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & González Gómez, Andrés, 2019. "Global financial risk, aggregate fluctuations, and unemployment dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 351-418.
    6. Baṣkaya, Yusuf Soner & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem & Yue, Vivian, 2024. "Sovereign risk and bank lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. István Ábel & Ádám Kóbor, 2022. "Macroeconomic Components of the Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Hungary," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    9. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    10. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Bryan Hardy & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Vivian Z. Yue, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Disaster," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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