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Sovereign credit spreads, banking fragility, and global factors

Author

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  • Chari, Anusha
  • Garcés, Felipe
  • Martínez, Juan Francisco
  • Valenzuela, Patricio

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between sovereign credit risk, banking fragility, and global financial factors in a large panel database of emerging market economies. To measure banking fragility, we construct a novel model-based semi-parametric metric (JLoss) that computes the expected joint loss of the banking sector in each country conditional on a country-level systemic event. Our metric of banking fragility is positively associated with sovereign credit spreads, after controlling for the standard determinants of sovereign credit risk, a comprehensive set of measures of systemic risk, and country and time fixed effects. The results additionally indicate that countries with more fragile banking sectors are more exposed to global (exogenous) financial factors than those with more resilient banking sectors. These findings underscore that regulators must ensure the stability of the banking sector to improve governments’ borrowing costs in international debt markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chari, Anusha & Garcés, Felipe & Martínez, Juan Francisco & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2024. "Sovereign credit spreads, banking fragility, and global factors," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s1572308924000202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101235
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Credit ratings; Credit risk; Emerging economies; Global factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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