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The Global Financial Cycle and Country Risk in Emerging Markets During Stress Episodes: A Copula-CoVaR Approach

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  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia
  • José Vicente Romero
  • Mahicol Stiben Ramírez-González

Abstract

En este artículo, analizamos la estructura de dependencia en las colas de las distribuciones de los Credit Default Swaps (CDS) y el ciclo financiero global en un grupo de once mercados emergentes. Utilizando un modelo Copula-CoVaR, proporcionamos evidencia de la dependencia significativa en las colas de las distribuciones de variables relacionadas con el ciclo financiero global, como el VIX, y los CDS de mercados emergentes. Estos hallazgos son importantes en el contexto de mercados financieros globales estresados (cola derecha de las distribuciones del VIX), ya que ofrecen a los inversores internacionales información relevante sobre cómo rebalancear sus portafolios mediante una métrica más general que el CoVaR tradicional. Además, nuestros resultados respaldan la importancia del ciclo financiero global en la dinámica del riesgo soberano. **** RESUMEN: In this paper, we analyze the tail-dependence structure of credit default swaps (CDS) and the global financial cycle for a group of eleven emerging markets. Using a Copula-CoVaR model, we provide evidence that there is a significant taildependence between variables related with the global financial cycle, such as the VIX, and emerging market CDS. These results are particularly important in the context of distressed global financial markets (right tail of the distributions of the VIX) because they provide international investors with relevant information on how to rebalance their portfolios and a more suitable metric to analyze sovereign risk that goes beyond the traditional CoVaR. Additionally, we present further evidence supporting the importance of the global financial cycle in sovereign risk dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Vicente Romero & Mahicol Stiben Ramírez-González, 2023. "The Global Financial Cycle and Country Risk in Emerging Markets During Stress Episodes: A Copula-CoVaR Approach," Borradores de Economia 1231, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1231
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1231
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    1. Matos, Paulo & Alves, Douglas & Monteiro, Valdeir, 2025. "On the time-frequency effects of macroeconomic policy on growth cycles in Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial cycle; Country risk; CDS; Copula-CoVaR; Ciclo financiero global; Riesgo soberano;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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